First of all, I'll confess that I bought into the secondary runup at $285. I bought again at $247, and $239, thinking LTC would break out of the triangle formation and start a bullish trend. I was right about the breakouts, but they were nosedives, not moon shots. I learned a valuable lesson through all of this, and I think it's worth sharing.
Looking at the chart, LTC is at a crossroads. If it violates the ascending baseline from the pre-December run, it's going to bomb. Back in November, I thought the rapid growth was premature, and a frenzy. As much as I knew LTC was overbought, I made the fatal mistake of listening to the online prognosticators saying that LTC was going to hit $600 by January 1st, 2018. This went against my gut feeling, and it made no sense. But I was overcome with FOMO ("Fear of Missing Out" for the new people), and I started buying.
Bitcoin Ben was one of the chief prognosticators preaching about $600 Litecoin by the first of the year. He wasn't the only one, though. There were several. After LTC went in the exact opposite direction, Bitcoin Ben blamed Coinbase for not being able to handle the demand for purchasing LTC. I think he is wrong about that as much as he and others were wrong about the $600 prediction.
The Crypto world is harsh, volatile, and completely unpredictable. We've got YouTube soothsayers in the thousands, making predictions about coin prices and ridiculous developments, and you have to take ALL of it with a grain of salt. There ins't a person in the world who can accurately predict the future for the crypto market. There are just too many factors in the formula that makes it a very convoluted study.
Back in November, as soon as LTC surpassed the $90 mark, I decided it was overvalued and I did not buy in. I should have stuck with that notion. That's not to say that LTC could in fact support super high levels in the future. But it is very possible that it's falling back to that point right now, for consolidation.
Something else that needs to be said...
It does not matter how many interstellar deals LTC makes with Amazon, Starbucks, Walmart, Facebook, Costco, McDonald's, KFC, Hardees, Burger King, Sams Club, Menards, Lowes, JC Penney, Sears, K-Mart, Ben Franklin, Plymouth, Barnes & Noble, the Russians, or anyone else. The price can still bomb. We can hype from dawn to dusk, and still lose our butts if we don't use our heads when investing in crypto.
So my advice is, don't invest what you can't live without. You could lose it all. And don't believe the hype. Nobody can predict anything accurately in this sector. And for the love of God above, DON'T BUY INTO A FEEDING FRENZY. It really sucks. The waiting time for a cycle to complete to get your money back can be agonizing... IF it ever runs again. There's always the possibility that a coin can pump-and-dump once, and never come back.
That said, I don't think this is the case with LTC. I am actually pretty excited about all of the possibilities for LTC use coming up in the future. But I think I better focus on what Litecoin was MEANT to be used for: a payment medium, NOT a get-rich-quick scheme.
Now I'll get back to my prayer closet and continue my vigil, and beg our merciful Lord and Savior that the breakout is coming at the end of this triangle ;-)
Me too I bought in at 100/200/250
I’ve been waiting a long time to get some money back hopefully it will break out like you say if not I might be selling at a loss but the I think maybe I should just keep riding this one out.
MinhLe91
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good chart ! Tks
MinhLe91
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@MinhLe91, though i believe it will break to the down side bc ltc is highly correlated wiith bitcoin
carltonzone
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@MinhLe91, True, it is. And BTC is getting whacked hard right now. I bought in to BTC at $9675 on November 29th, I think it was. As it doubled I kept selling off my position, and used the money to buy about 10 other altcoins. I made massive gains on the coins I bought with the original BTC money. I told people that I thought BTC was WAY overbought and needed to correct back to $8000, but nobody believed me. I guess I was right.
carltonzone
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@MinhLe91, You are very welcome! Glad you enjoyed it! ;-)
NickPadovani
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Admittedly Ben took advantage of an opportunity based off of a few good predictions, and many people were burned by that, but no one can predict the market, so I suppose it's nothing to begrudge him about. I believe we're just experiencing a much needed correction before reaching some new highs, where we will in fact touch 80-100. I know the feeling, fam, I was in the same position as you; he as well as many others hyped me up about 600, so I was gung ho. at this point, I'm honestly just waiting for a dip so I can buy more- In fact, if this dip happens, it would put me into the long term hodl position I only could dream of. I'm super excited and faithful in the technology, so I hope more than anything that this dip follows through, because I'm looking forward to the subsequent rise.
carltonzone
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@NickPadovani, Thanks much, I appreciate your response! It's hard to hold and put my attention elsewhere, but I'm going to have to buckle down and be patient. There's always good in every situation. This might be what I need to hold for the long term, and realize the greatest gains. Because if it DID break out on January 1st, I would have probably taken profit on most of my position. But this is a way to force me into holding long enough that I forget about it. One interesting thing I also learned is that we really don't know what pushes prices one way or another. Bitcoin Ben said he thought it was due to Coinbase. But it probably would have happened no matter what. I think he also learned a lesson in this, because I've noticed that he no longer makes price predictions. I still listen to him every day, and he has a calming effect. He keeps me patient, and helps to put the focus on the long term. We'll get our just reward though! It will just take a lot of coffee and patience! haha
NickPadovani
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@carltonzone, I absolutely agree about Ben. I did a consultation with him, and while at that point in time I had begun to start doing my own research, and I no longer felt the need to base my portfolio off what he said, he has a certain style about him that is very confidence enforcing. He helped me get heavily into crypto, and he pushed me to begin doing my own research, so I'm grateful to have found out about him all the same.
bitb0y
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this is perhaps the most accurate post i've ever seen on tradeview
carltonzone
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@bitb0y, Oh my goodness, well thank you very much! I appreciate that! It encourages me to share more often! I see so many posts where people get overly technical. They look so deeply into complex patterns, angles, baselines, etc. But I think the market is so erratic that most of what worked with the stock market just doesn't work the same here. I don't agree with the people who say that NONE of the technical analysis indicators work in cryptocurrency, but I will agree that there is a far greater rate of inaccurate prognosticating going on. Hope to converse with you on future posts!
I’ve been waiting a long time to get some money back hopefully it will break out like you say if not I might be selling at a loss but the I think maybe I should just keep riding this one out.