LTC has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle ever since it`s ATH of $375 on the 19th of December. Mostly it was following the BTC price, but with less intricacies (kind of "wait and see" approach). I am expecting a breakout of this triangle in the next couple of days - no more than by week`s end. Where to ... that is a difficult question. Those triangles are difficult to predict since they can break either up, down or sideways. However, the chart has a few "clues" about what is the most likely scenario - down.
The price at the current level is sitting just on the 30 day EMA and at the 0.5 Fib retracement level of the last bull run, on the lower wedge of the triangle. It can also be seen the wave count a-b-c-d which points to the e point (breakdown) happening at a lower level, towards the down side. The indicators are all going down (MACD and RSI) but what is most important when it comes to analyzing those triangles is the volume. Since the triangle formed at the top of a long term up trend, the volume at the tip of the triangle is the most important "clue" about what is about to happen. If we have very strong volume (higher than at the beginning and the middle) then most likely the triangle is a continuation one and the price will break towards the upside. However, if the volume is low and constantly decreasing throughout the formation of the triangle, it indicates a reversal triangle and the price is most likely about to fall, for a further correction.
Levels to watch are $308 (0.23 Fib level) for an upside breakout or $150 (0.78 Fib level) for a downside breakout.
Of course anything can happen and any FUD / hype news affecting the BTC will impact the other crypto-coins (LTC included) however this is what the present chart is telling me. As always, this is not a trading advise but just my personal "reading" of the charts.
Good luck all and enjoy trading !
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On the hourly chart, we are at the "battle" point - price meets both the Fib level of $233 and the trend line support. Let`s see the outcome:
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On the same hourly chart we have a very nice breakout followed by a big red candle meaning confirmed breakout. However, I am still waiting for the 4h chart confirmation, since we can have a bear trap there. There was a massive selloff all across the board - BTC, LTC, Ripple, etc. so let`s see what happens next
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The breakout did happen, actually within few hours from posting the idea, not even days ... We had a major sell off across the board and in our case LTC stopped for the moment around $185, a little under the Fib level of $200. After the normal retrace up, let`s see if it will reach our target of 150sh {image]
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Within a day, LTC is close to the previous low at $173. Let`s see if it will reach the predicted 150sh levels
With the LT Stoch RSI having just turned up not down an educated guess would be a move to the upside but it's really a flip of the coin here. Great charting. Thank you
Haceru
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@london55555, I understand your point about the RSI, however is not an end-of-day "up" yet; also it is still under the previous high, thus is an longer time downtrend. But like you said, it is really a 50-50 chance for either side (not to count the side-way :) ) Thanks for the comment, as always :)
NewYork888
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@Haceru, That's a valid point but when an asset trades 24/7 365 im not sure when "end of the day" is to be honest. LOL
Haceru
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@london55555, LOL, good point :) ... it would be interesting to see if there is anywhere such an analysis as when are the most "active" times for this market, to be considered as "time stamps" with their "down" times as well
NewYork888
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@Haceru, If there isn't just wait a minute and one will probably be invented LOL