Though we couldn't catch the exact bottom and the position got risky as we broke down of the range all who were able to hold through the panic are in profit today. There was an undercut low with a false breakdown of the range but today it just seems it was a final shakeout .
My only concern : is that possible we had a mild ICL? Triangles and ranges are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles. We have to assume that the ICL is behind us on the 1st of November. We broke out of the range last week Thursday and the next resistance ahead of us at 3.161$.
When a multi month consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought conditions or wait for the never coming pullback. I still got many messages how to enter into a NatGas or UGAZ trade right now.
It's really hard to help when the train is leaving the station. We entered early and had to bear a drawdawn where price seemed to go much lower. Contrarians didn't help us to hold the position, too... But it was still easier to enter early than to enter a position at the exact bottom. I saw a few people below my post who entered near to the exact bottom or added to the position at the lows. You can still check who had the balls to enter there and also post in real time .
But the hardest part is just coming in the following weeks. Sit tight and let the winners run. It doesn't matter if you caught the exact bottom or not. The big money will be in the uptrend in the next 2 month.
I still think that are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows . The pattern has the characteristic of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.( is supporting the accumulation)
I set the 200 on the chart. We might or might not have a pullback to the 200 from the next before breaking higher.
Last year the rally was relentless. There was not much of a pullback. Though the ICL a few days ago was not that deep like last year: the consolidation was long enough to have a big rally into year end. is already overbought so it's possible we will have a pullback, but it can also run for weeks in the overbought territory and before the daily cycle tops it will print an divergence with higher high in the price. still has a long way to run.
LONG follow through idea. We are long from 2.855.
We traded successfully last year's winter rally:
I gave a possible entry yesterday for the ones at the sidelines.
It was the 9th day above the 200 SMA. The chances are high
we are bouncing tomorrow or Monday.
We did this on low volume and still above the 400 EMA. The 400 EMA was very important during the last 1-1.5 year. (red arrows)We bounced many times from there. It still can be a steep flag though.
If we are reversing we need to do it in 2-3 days with a close above the 400 MA.
And the RSI is at the 50 line... The weekly 200 MA was to hard to break it through we turned down from there again.
Contrarians must be kicking themselves.
At least we know who sold at the exact bottom last Friday.
I was holding my longs.
We wil get a good rally after this drop.
Have we just picked up Wizard Watsonzou at the gap close???
I'm sure we will get know if he sells again.
I just didn't have the patience for a perfect entry:
Will be testing the May -Nov highs again this week.
If the intermediate low is in we might have the same rally we had in the green rectangle last November.
RSI just reaching overbought. After the previos intermediate low price stayed overbought for a long time. I highlighted by a red vertical ine where price was when we got overbought.... Price can run for weeks from here.