Tested 20MA with a convincing push up = bias remains BULL
50MA crossed above 100MA
20MA closing in on 200MA
Up trend tested Nov 7 higher low 2.546 within pennies of the prior higher low Aug 8 - 2.523 imo qualifies as a - same Nov7 low was first touch & test test of 100MA support
Targeting gap to 3.67 and will re-assess price action/fundamentals but ultimately think we see $4 touched before shoulder season
Inventories/Production tight & increasing exports/coal converters are the main fundamental drivers but weather always a wild card
The MACD has crossed above the 0 line hasn't been above it since Dec '14
Going back 20 years this will be only the 5th such occurrence
In the 4 times it's happened, the price nearly doubled within 6 months!
Certainly not suggesting that has to repeat but definitely food for thought
Now this may be getting ahead of myself in terms of this particular trade idea but bear wi.. er.. bull with me here for a sec.
Hypothetically, let's assume the Monthly MACD were continue to ascend, if we were conservative and predict it only goes up 50% from the low this week of $3.10 would be 4.65
On the weekly there is not a whole lot of resistance after 3.90 to 4.65 so this scenario imo is plausible
Definitely going to continue keeping an eye on the Monthly MACD progression this year
Trade well friends!
Had hedged my original longs along the way down which I closed before the report and added to the longs today
Retail sold the farm based on weather alone imo nice scalps short but even better buying op for the swing