The fib 1.618 extension happened jan 1. Japanese growrth has been a major issue for some time, partly due to their populations age distribution. This may be why USD.JPY has been holding up so well given the context of the dollar index in general.
Funds will flee these markets and buy into US markets, thus sparking the return from EUR.USD 1.4 peak and so on.
Looking for 50% retrace, whatever that green arrow is.