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NVIDIA Could Be In For Major Drop

NASDAQ:NVDA   NVIDIA CORP
On April 28, 2017, NVIDIA             stock crossed below its 100 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 106 times and the stock drops a minimum of 0.327%. The median drop is 6.170% and maximum drop is 44.146% over the next 12 trading days.

When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index ( RSI ) is at 54.3666. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down since reaching its high around February 7, 2017.

The true strength index (TSI) is currently -7.3622. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading also declares the stock has been moving down since reaching its high around February 7, 2017.

The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0986 and the negative is at 0.8457. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been up over the recent two weeks, but has begun moving down.

The stochastic oscillator K value is 90.1054 and D value is 91.7037. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is overbought and will move down.

This stock has flirted with the 100 DMA for the past four days. It crossed above on day Tuesday, below on Wednesday, above and Thursday, with the final close below on Friday. Although this pattern has never occurred exactly, similar instances occurred in November 2000, February 2001, August 2001, February 2002, February 2007, December 2007, May 2011, October 2012. The final cross down lead to a 44.146%, 19.294%, 37.098%, 19.964%, 14.52%, 32.122%, 5.986%, 10.038% respective drop over the following 12 trading days. These drops all seem drastic but could be a signal of chaos for the NVDA             stock.

Considering the moving average crossover, RSI , TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 4.05% if not more over the next 12 trading days. Based on the similar historical flirtations with the 100 DMA, Stochastic , RSI , and TSI, the drop could be much more than the projected 4.05%.

FUNDAMENTAL TAKE: Earnings for NVIDIA             will occur in this timeframe. The estimated EPS             is much lower than it has been which could also signal downward movement in the longer term. This stock is incredibly overpriced in comparison to similar stocks in this sector.
Bình luận: Of the similar occurrences mentioned above, two of them mimic our current situation. February 2007 and March 2002 had the bearish trend, stochastic around overbought territory, bearish RSI in the 50s, bearish TSI, and the positive vortex indicator above the negative.

snapshot


In the above chart from February 2007, all indicators were similar if not identical to where we are today. The overall trend was bearish and heading down with the stock in the top of the trend channel. The RSI was in the 50s and sloping down for the previous 2 months. The positive VI was above the negative VI (which typically signals upward movement) which was a misleading signal. The stochastic D value was greater than the K and recently left overbought territory. Comparing all of these factors with today's situation could assist in validating a significant current drop for NVDA.
Bình luận:
snapshot


In the above chart from March 2002, all indicators were similar if not identical to where we are today. The overall trend was bearish and heading down with the stock in the top of the trend channel. The RSI was at 49 and sloping down for the previous 3 months. The positive VI was above the negative VI (which typically signals upward movement) which was a misleading signal. The stochastic D value was greater than the K and recently fell short of overbought territory. Comparing our current indicators along with those from 2007 and 2002 could be history repeating itself…again.
Bình luận: Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock should drop at least 4.05% if not more over the next 12 trading days. Based on the similar historical flirtations with the 100 DMA, the bearish trend, Stochastic, RSI, TSI, and VI, the drop could be in the 14-19% range. This drop would place the stock sub-90 and possibly sub-85.

FUNDAMENTAL TAKE: Earnings for NVIDIA will occur in this timeframe. The estimated EPS is much lower than it has been which could also signal downward movement in the longer term. There is a lot of competition in NVIDIA's market and they have been losing their market share to cheaper competitors. NVIDIA is a good company and could be a great buy once their bear trend subsides but this stock is incredibly overpriced in comparison to similar stocks in this sector.
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