Is Rivian about to tumble into Bankruptcy? <

EV market adoption is saturating, in my opinion. And don’t get me started on environmental benefits with which this whole debacle began. If demand for electric vehicles drop before the environmental “payback” period (when EV use starts offsetting the emissions from production), then:

• The upfront emissions from mining and refining critical minerals would still have occurred.
  
• The long-term climate benefits from cleaner driving wouldn’t materialise.
  
• Which means the net effect could actually worsen global warming in the short to medium term, since we’d have massive energy use and emissions from mining and manufacturing,
  

That's better, get the rant over with sooner than late.

The background

The net zero drive has been incredibly frustrating to watch unfold, a forced movement, without being fully thought through.

The race to the bottom further emphasised as Chinese firms like BYD who are able to undercut almost every other manufacturer, regardless of the production environmental impact. The hypocrisy knows no bounds. Especially as you consider a net zero initiative requires a mass scale solution. How is niche purchasers of mass off road SUVs to contribute to this change?

If you ignore the environmental gesture owners convince themselves on purchase, what would you rather use off-road in a snow covered mountainside? Yeah..

Recently I had an opportunity to share a ride in a 4-5 year old Tesla. It was notable how quickly tech has dated, like last year’s iPhone. It's still good but Meahh. The interior cabin looked like a lost 1990's Starbucks corner where hope went to die and the vacuum cleaner on strike. Do serious coffee drinkers still use Starbucks? Anyway…

The technical

A while back the unpopular idea “eVTOL manufacturer Lilium on the verge of 80% collapse?” was published. This annoyed fanboys convinced the Jetsons future would be here any moment.

And collapse it did. The business was drowning in debt, technically weak, spending energy on a product no one wanted. Who on earth wants a flying battery with all the complications that includes when the proven technology of the helicopter and safety record continues to succeed? If it works, don’t fix it. Unfortunately Rivian and their investors din’t get that memo.

On the above 2 week chart, Rivian’s technical setup and fundamentals appear to be converging in a way that suggests significant downside risk. From a chart perspective, the descending triangle pattern, coupled with multiple bearish engulfing candles and a series of lower highs, highlights persistent selling pressure. These are classic hallmarks of a weakening structure. A decisive breakdown from the triangle could, based on prior measured moves, imply a potential ~60% decline from current levels. On the fundamental side, the headwinds are equally stark:

• $5 billion in debt,
  
• Negative P/E ratio (~–4.17),
  
• $11 million in monthly interest obligations,
  
• Continued margin pressure in a slowing EV market.
  

If consumer demand plateaus before Rivian reaches cost efficiency and scale, the company could face liquidity stress or even solvency risk. This risk is amplified by rising competition, particularly from BYD and other cost efficient Chinese EV producers. In short, Rivian’s position in the premium EV niche looks precarious, both technically and structurally.

Conclusions
Rivian, oh, here we go. The electric SUV company that was gonna save the planet. I got those emails periodically in the spam filter. I doubt bankruptcy will stop them from arriving.

Yeah, apparently the world’s going green, right? We’ll all be driving electric trucks up mountains while saving polar bears. Brilliant. Except now they’ve got five billion dollars of debt and owe eleven million a month just in interest. That’s not a company, that’s a bloke with too many credit cards pretending he’s fine.

So yeah, technically, fundamentally, whatever you want to call it, it’s a mess. The chart says ‘down,’ the balance sheet says ‘help,’ and the investors are probably saying, ‘Where’s the exit?’
The only bullish thing left is the optimism of the shareholders. And that’s fading faster than a Tesla interior ;-)

Ww




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Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only, whilst being a lot more environmentally friendlier than a new Rivian SUV. It represents personal opinions based on publicly available data and technical chart interpretation, not financial advice.

Trading and investing in financial markets involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of capital. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.