While BTC leads alts around by the nose, some decline in SCBTC is expected, and this latest dip warrants analysis.
RSI on this timeframe shows bearish divergence since December, intensifying across the last month, with some bullish divergence from the bottom end as "knife-catchers" get more confident. *IF* the current dip is actually a jaunt down the next channel rung, the intersection with fib retracement would set a possible price point around 140-150 sats between March 5 and March 22. The long shadow of this downchannel looks like it could be in accumulation territory for some time. *IF* the current dip brings enough trade volume (hasn't yet) then the potential exists for nearing 250 sats during that same period.
Between the VPVR and the speed at which the price increased, there may not be much support for SCBTC between 150 and 200 sats without manipulated orders (but hey, this is crypto).
Now for the fun part.
The drama surrounding Siacoin and the ASIC miners released by Bitmain are another opportunity to study cryptoeconomics from a "crypto-ecologic" perspective as the dynamics of supply and demand change at the crux of miners' production, accumulation, and circulating supply. The uncapped issuance (down to 2.3% after 20 years) makes this value difficult to peg without high levels of use of the network. Siacoins are used to pay for decentralized storage of data via contracts where the storage seller consistently submits proofs of storage to the network, these proofs are included in the blocks mined for inclusion on the chain. The number of contracts has decreased recently following steady growth during December and January. (siastats.info/active_contracts)
Bitmain offered the A3 initially at under $1,000 per unit, making the production and accumulation much easier, increasing short-term bearish outlook for SCBTC, but increasing the overall money invested in the network hashing power. Interest in- and utility of- the SC network in combination with the increased difficulty should make for longer-term bullish trends, but the cost for production in the near-term makes accumulation possible for buyers in addition to miners during the lull before prospective increased network use. It is possible that larger entities with lots of data to store and an eye for low-cap investment would buy the miners to pay for the data, unloading their accumulated coins as prices make future jumps, damping the highs of volatility for the future. There are also competitors to contend with in the decentralized storage space, however the ASIC miner development could potentially swing more network participants to the Siacoin network. If nothing else, this will be interesting.
* NOT A PRO * DYOR * TAKE YOUR OWN ADVICE *
Work the muck, and I'll see y'all come harvest time.
RSI on this timeframe shows bearish divergence since December, intensifying across the last month, with some bullish divergence from the bottom end as "knife-catchers" get more confident. *IF* the current dip is actually a jaunt down the next channel rung, the intersection with fib retracement would set a possible price point around 140-150 sats between March 5 and March 22. The long shadow of this downchannel looks like it could be in accumulation territory for some time. *IF* the current dip brings enough trade volume (hasn't yet) then the potential exists for nearing 250 sats during that same period.
Between the VPVR and the speed at which the price increased, there may not be much support for SCBTC between 150 and 200 sats without manipulated orders (but hey, this is crypto).
Now for the fun part.
The drama surrounding Siacoin and the ASIC miners released by Bitmain are another opportunity to study cryptoeconomics from a "crypto-ecologic" perspective as the dynamics of supply and demand change at the crux of miners' production, accumulation, and circulating supply. The uncapped issuance (down to 2.3% after 20 years) makes this value difficult to peg without high levels of use of the network. Siacoins are used to pay for decentralized storage of data via contracts where the storage seller consistently submits proofs of storage to the network, these proofs are included in the blocks mined for inclusion on the chain. The number of contracts has decreased recently following steady growth during December and January. (siastats.info/active_contracts)
Bitmain offered the A3 initially at under $1,000 per unit, making the production and accumulation much easier, increasing short-term bearish outlook for SCBTC, but increasing the overall money invested in the network hashing power. Interest in- and utility of- the SC network in combination with the increased difficulty should make for longer-term bullish trends, but the cost for production in the near-term makes accumulation possible for buyers in addition to miners during the lull before prospective increased network use. It is possible that larger entities with lots of data to store and an eye for low-cap investment would buy the miners to pay for the data, unloading their accumulated coins as prices make future jumps, damping the highs of volatility for the future. There are also competitors to contend with in the decentralized storage space, however the ASIC miner development could potentially swing more network participants to the Siacoin network. If nothing else, this will be interesting.
* NOT A PRO * DYOR * TAKE YOUR OWN ADVICE *
Work the muck, and I'll see y'all come harvest time.