In mid-December after hitting a low of around $15.60 an ounce, Silver has found some footing and is experiencing a strong uptrend. At the end of December, it easily crossed 16.61 and the 16.88 resistance which has now become a key support. Following along the 16.88 support, the recent bullish trend has provided additional support encouraging Silver towards recent highs. Most recently, it challenged resistance at 17.70 coming just short and finding support again with the trend line. In so doing, we have formed a bullish flag. If we can continue to follow the trend, using it as support, we should come off the other side of the flag to again challenge 17.70. In the last week, we have also seen increased bullish volume. Pair all of these with a MACD cross that seems to be setting up and Silver could very well gain some long overdue gains, pushing over $18.00 an ounce by the end of the February. If this holds true, that would be over a 13% gain from mid-December to March. I'm not making any suggestions here to anyone else, but I'm buying Silver! With the stock markets being pumped as much as they have been and interest rates gradually coming back up, I expect that at some point in the near future things are going to look a little bit different in the big scheme of things. As that happens I expect more money to flow back into both gold and silver, as history has shown many times. I think this new trend is just the beginning of good days making its way back to silver.
@goldbug1 If you have time, take a look at this and tell me what I might have seen differently that would have shown the huge drop in Silver spot today!!
Mdotee.
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@Bremily01, See the up/down/up wave pattern between 1/29 and 1/31? I went long silver too but we shouldve spotted that as an ABC correction of a larger 3-wave corrective pattern with a final C leg still pending (or we shouldve waited for clear breakout of the flag. We didn't so we pay the price unfortunately.
MCassICT
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@Mdotee., thanks for pointing out. Ill have to look at that in depth.
pmifsud
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I think there is nothing now holding silver from reaching 15.60 support once again once that USD will continue to strengthen as expected next week....any feedback please!
pmifsud
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I agreed perfectly with your analysis....you did nothing wrong
The non-farm payroll had a big influence on this drop especially that the USD has strengthened.
MCassICT
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@pmifsud, Really! I wish I understood how things like that could play and when. I guess it depends on your perspective. I come from a perspective admittedly pessimistic after losing my 9 year small business during the recession, shutting down finally in 2013. I know that has influenced my perspective on this current market, which to me seems so incredibly and artificially pumped up that I am just waiting for and preparing for the next one. Maybe thats why I am so bullish on Silver. Its hard for me to imagine others not expecting another recession around the corner real soon and money begin to move into the "safe havens".
pmifsud
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Sorry to hear that my friend.....
Your technical analysis is good....but it is not enough. You also have to consider the fundamental analysis.....you cannot expect the silver to be bullish when both the AUD and the NZD currencies are weak. It is anticipated that this week both AUD and NZD will continue to be bearish....so that is another shot in the leg for silver....For that reason I believe that silver will hit the 15.60 support
pmifsud
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However Bremily01 in no way I want to influence you with my decisions....yes that is my perspective but trading is much more than technical analysis....i guess the market will do what it wants and when it wants and how it wants......but correlations normally are a good market drive.HOWEVER NO CAN EVER KNOW THE EXTENT OF THIS DRIVE OTHERWISE THE STREETS WILL BE EMPTY AND EVERYONE WILL BE A MILLIONAIRE THROUGH TRADING ALONE.
MCassICT
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@pmifsud, Good info thank you. So what exactly is the correlation then with AUD and NZD?
pmifsud
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@Bremily01, Normally when the AUD and NZD are strong, the commodities like copper, gold and silver tend to become increasingly bullish with respect to the USD.....I am predicting that this week both AUD and NZD are going to be weak with a slightly stronger USD.....Both AUD and NZD have a relatively large supply of such mineral reserves...So for that reason I anticipate a more bearish silver and gold......but please I am not here to influence anyone, that is how I predict things myself only