My conclusion is the January move upward was an aberration from euphoria over the Tax Bill passage. An otherwise expected 8% drop timed for January was slightly delayed until late in the month and carried to the expected lower target near 200 day . The euphoria led to a decline > 10% and a technical "correction."
A "V" shaped recovery likely began of the 2533 low on 2/9/18 and should start the next wave upward. It won't be straight to new highs and a pause at 2750 is expected.
Fear indicators are at extremes and lead to conditions for significant relief and upward price movement. and are shown with comparison to earlier declines. Anecdotal technical information and positioning reflects investor fear going into the weekend. Those positions and fears should ignite a sharp upward move when they prove unfounded and are unwound.