Yield Curve Inversion and S&P500 Returns & Losses

In the last 50 years, every time US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.

However, once the market peaks, it drops 37.6% on average.

Assuming you can time the market peak perfectly, there is a lot of money to be had. However, the downside risk is a lot greater than the upside opportunity.

If you are a long-term “buy-and-hold” investor, with the yield curve having just inverted in August 2019, be prepared to ride a 3- to 5-year roller coaster of highs and lows.
At the end, when you step off the ride, you can expect to have roughly the same equity value that you do today.