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Signature of a Bear Market

TVC:SPX   Chỉ số S&P 500
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329 15
In bull markets typically the low of the day is made near the open.
In bear markets typically the high of the day is made near the open.

Seven of the last nine trading days the SPX high of the day was made within the first twenty minutes of trading.

This is another of many clues that for stocks, the bear may be back.
If there's a SPX rally on the open 1/3/17 it may not last very long.
If so the SPX may not reach the target zone noted In my 12/31/16 SPX post.
Illustrated in this post is a lower target zone.
Maintain stop loss at SPX 2285.93

Happy New Year to All

Love this trade, thanks!
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markrivest tipua411
Hi @tipua411,

Hi thanks for letting me know.

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I was trapped in a small long position from 2270 (when I thought the triangle was breaking upwards) and was able to exit that position at a small loss at 2248 this morning (Far East time). Here in the Far East the S&P Future got a big spike up to 2252 and is currently trading at 2246. Although I'm disappointed at the small loss, I'm happy to have had the patience to wait for a bounce in order to exit.

I can't identify the pattern in the current downtrend, except the slight possibility that it is a falling wedge developing. If so, the cash market won't reach 48/52 and might fail around the 40 area. Uncertain and happy to stand aside until I see something with a high percentage success probability. I'm watching for the 2227 area which is where C=1.618 (if it is indeed an ABC top pattern).

The Bradley roadmap suggests a negative tone until the next date of January 8th which is expected to be a low of sorts, but of course the market can rally between dates.
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Hi @kunsan,

Thanks for the comment. There will probably be plenty of opportunities to short the SPX. Sometime on 1/3/17 or at the latest 1/4/17 the SPX has a good chance of making another short term top.
See this post for the lower of the two target zones. My prior SPX post has the higher of the two upside targets. That post also has the most likely wave count. This bear move is just starting, most likely a big move down is coming within a few trading days.

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Hy Mark,

the reason might be another one and might could misslead you. According to Art Cashing (CNBC Contributor) and (fomer?) head of UBS Floor Operations on the NYSE was saying starting by last tuesday that the reason for this selling is "rebalancing". Total return funds had been forced to sell equities and to buy back bonds wich they sold before to buy back stocks. The Volume for this should had been at least 35 B US-Dollars and the selling before or at the close is typically for this Art Cashin had said. If ever this might be the real reason than same time in the next 10 days money might flow into the stockmarkets as well means on one hand you have less selling pressure and on the other hand you might see some buying pressure. I ´am allways carefull about arguments like this but Art Cash is more on accurate than most others.

Investors favor stock funds over bonds, reversing 2016 trend

"We probably could see this trend continue through the end of the year and then into the inauguration," said David Mazza, head of ETF and mutual fund research at State Street Global Advisors. "Then, from there, it's what will those first 100 days look like."


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markrivest SwissView

Thanks for the information. Art is one of the better commentators.

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SwissView markrivest

he really is. So i woud no argue against your opinion if somebody else might have said something like this. If ever he follow up about his statements from tuesday to friday i will leave a comment here for you.
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markrivest SwissView
Hi @SwissView,

Thanks I would appreciate that.

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SwissView markrivest

sure. If every you might watch CNBC and you here somethin new about this please send me PM.

Have great year, Mark.

I wish you all the best for 2017.

Regards from Zürich,

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Reekardo SwissView
@SwissView, @markrivest good thread gents... watch that tuesday range open on SPX and NDX... any closes above or below is the key to inauguration and after that, all bets are off the table.
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