Today all positions are closed.
Lets see what will happen next year.
I started to publish trading ideas here one month ago. We can look back here only for this periode of time. Earlier 2016 my bias was deeply bearish until Febuar 11th, and changing to strong bullish two days after the Referendum in UK until now. In the month from March to May i learned and understood, how effective the policy of Central Banks is and that 116 monetary decissions have supported the market at least and driven higher for your. For most of the time i was waiting at the sideline.
The conclusions is: Never fight the Central Banks. For 2016 the Fed supported stockmarkets. For 2017 I expect that the new US-Government might start to push the US Economy and that the US-Federal Reserve Bank might fight against this. Also we need to expect a new Fed Chair and even this might effect the market by summer this year. Janet Yellen will be replaced after all what we know now by 2018.
This ---> trading idea ---> long was opened at 94´28´´7 and closed at 96´00´2.
This is a net gain of more than a full point.
It was not a real trade. I do not trade countertrends if ever not neccessary.
I follow the Euro-Bund to indicate any further direction of stockmarkets. This rise came totaly unexpected and most retail investors are betting against this.
Gold: This trading idea i will follow up. For me it looks like that the odds medium term are higher to the upside for stockmarkets and gold might could get lower on the long term.
"set ups": still open are some set ups. I watch this set ups closely. One set up for us high techs probably failed means i do not follow US Techs anymore to the upside probably. I need to wait the first trading days in 2017. I am uncertain about transports and SPX. Thisfore i will watch the setups the next days as well before cancelling this idea.
For me this looks a bit special. I am expecting still that the DAX might outperform most other stockmarkets in Q1 2017. As we all have seen the Euro is down and there is no other stockmarket in this world earning more from this than the German DAX. So be not suprised if this market goes sometime rocket straight up again. The German Handelsblatt.com is ecpecting record profits and record high dividends to pay in 2017 by the 30 DAX companies on average.
The last trading day gave a clear message that the DAX is not following weaker US-Stockmarkets directely. The terror attack in Berlin 4 days before Christmas did not leave any damage even investors mood for sure was affeceted by this.
The German DAX might could get a sharp move to the up side if ever 11.500 might be passed. Thisfore i keep 30% of the DAX long position even fully hedged to the downside.
Usually i trade only longer or lager moves. So do not be suprised if i might stay longer on the sideline from now on. This could be for few days or weeks but even month if i am uncertain about any new trend.
---> In the month from March to May i learned and understood, how effective the policy of Central Banks is and that 116 monetary decissions have supported the market at least and driven higher for the rest of the year. For most of the time from 11th of february until june i was waiting at the sideline but having some trades in the nikkei and some short trades in european indices for short periode of time only