Per John Murphy, a rising wedge in a uptrend is very rare and thus a very important pattern to be aware of and watch closely. Murphy is all about confirmation so should SPX break below this pattern, then its bearishness would be confirmed with 2-3 closes below the lower line. A confirmation of this type would surely lead to a test of the lower rising price channel line, IMHO.
GL
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Will_Wong
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Looks like you got one of your 2~3 closes below the lower line.
CurtisM
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Will, don't know if it's going to happen, but I'm watching for a mega down day before the end of the week of around 2% as a confirmation that the tide has changed.
These kinds of pull backs usually end with some kind of capitulation event similar to what happened on Feb 3, so that's something to watch for...maybe next week.
Will_Wong
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Curtis:
I don't know what to think! Seems like the market is looking for any excuse to keep this bull alive. Dovish FOMC minutes resulted in a 180 point gain for the DOW? I was mostly out of the market since last Friday except for one last tranche. Good that I am still making some money but I suspect the market will gap up tomorrow. Today marks about a 50% retracement of the losses since last Friday. It would help if the FB retracement wasn't just about some FOMC minutes though.
CurtisM
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Will, we do not have a trend, up or down and as a result every trader out there is wondering the same thing: which way do we go? Until there is a trend, then the best we can do is reduce risk, hang on to cash, and wait.
And now SPX has closed back inside the rising wedge pattern and so I'm thinking at this point that a test of the recent high in the upper 1890's may be on the horizon. Plus SPX is now above the Ichimoku cloud in the 60min time frame and is also above the 13/34 EMA's on my 4 hour ES chart and so IMHO market bias has moved from a negative bias a couple of days ago back to a positive bias. Still, without a trend, this is only meaningful in the short term.