Giá xuống

8 Reasons to Short the Stock Market (Part One) #stocks

SP:SPX   Chỉ báo S&P 500
3852 lượt xem
3852 23
(1) Market Valuation: 4 main measures of market valuation is signalling markets are overvalued
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 . A well-known measure of market valuation. It is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio. The Ratio currently stands around 25, more than 50% above its mean(average).

The Q Ratio is another popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. It currently stands around 1.09 , 59% above its mean of 0.68

Crestmont P/E ratio at 27.3 . 96% above its average

The Buffet Indicator: Market Cap to GDP
The indicator remains over 2 standard deviations above its mean, currently around 128%.

(2)Risk-off Environment
Junk bonds which are a great measure of market sentiment has been lagging in recent months, and breaking down.

Technical Breakdown
(3)Long term rising channel was taken
(4)12-month average was taken
(5) Bearish divergence on momentum

To be continued...
My best regards
Subscribe to my trading portal
I'm curious to read part two but it seems to be "hidden for violating one or more of TradingView's House Rules."
Phản hồi
Hi, Technician, would you agree with me that starting from March 2009, we have just completed wave 3 and is in the process of seeing wave 4 unfold? That being said, once wave 4 is complete, we should look for a final wave 5 blowoff before the Big One?

A 68.2% retracement should take us to 1418 although a 38.2% retracement for a wave 4 seems more reasonable and that should take it down to 1732.
Phản hồi
Beautiful article btw... very nice observations why it hasn't got 100+ likes I do not know....
Phản hồi
Technician dionvuletich
:) .. I appreciate your gratitude.
Phản hồi
Yup, shorted this at 2104.5 with a 4 point stop, hit 2x targets already and looking for final target just above 1700

Just entered another order to short I think around 2024 from memory...? not at platform so can't check.. getting into selling rallies mode
Phản hồi
Technician dionvuletich
Best of luck buddy
+1 Phản hồi
I believe the huge corrections in dow, s&p500, and nasdaq was mostly the fear and panic selling by traders reacting to China's failing economy. What matters is what happened after the quick downfall, market had no problem rising almost all way back up again. I take this to be a correction that was essential for the markets in order for them to continue higher. Are we done with the correction, we need to see stabilization in the markets before we see investors jumping back in and start buying stocks at cheaper prices. Great analysis by the way Technician, as always :)
Phản hồi
Technician moneymaking
Thanks mate for your view. I think it is not a good time to buy stocks, you already know i have been a bear for quite some time. I think we are not heading higher any time soon, and at least we are heading for 25% correction.
+2 Phản hồi
dionvuletich Technician
I agree with you tech
Phản hồi
moneymaking Technician
isn't any correction beyond 20% taken as bear market reversal signal?
Phản hồi
VI Tiếng Việt
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Trang chủ Bộ lọc cổ phiếu Bộ lọc Forex Bộ lọc Tiền điện tử Lịch kinh tế Cách thức hoạt động Tính năng Biểu đồ Quy tắc Áp dụng Người điều hành Giải pháp cho Website & Nhà môi giới Widget Thư viện Biểu đồ Chứng khoán Yêu cầu tính năng Blog & Tin tức Câu hỏi thường gặp Hỗ trợ & Wiki Twitter
Hồ sơ Tùy chỉnh Hồ sơ Tài khoản và Thanh toán Ticket Hỗ trợ của tôi Liên hệ Hỗ trợ Các ý tưởng đã đăng Người theo dõi Đang theo dõi Tin nhắn riêng Trò chuyện Đăng xuất