Honestly, I do not have any view now. Are you surprised? Nor does the mkt have any view. SP500 has been swinging in a range around the 1950-1955 short term equilibrium.
Yes, from here anything is possible. Depends on FED? Well, actually not even on FED, but rather on how mkt players will interprete the decision and the comments issued by FOMC.
Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bearish biased, but mkt has zero momentum now, and Ichimoku can easily turn to neutral or bullish in a sudden spike. - Bearish continuation requires a close below 1930. - Heikin Ashi signals nothing but noise. Candles are changing quickly, haDelta/SMA3 stuck around zero.
4H: - The picture is absolutely neutral from every point of view. As Ichimoku tells us this mkt has been very good for daytraders and range traders for last 4-5 days, but a complete disaster for trend followers. Anyway, good thing in Ichimoku and Heikin Ashi is that these systems tell you as well when NOT to trade. - Heikin Ashi has been giving a lot of noise too, but probably the buy small dips strategy worked better if you followed only Heikin Ashi signals. (right now bias is slightly bullish)
Anyway, with the lines drawn on both time frames it is quite obvious when and how to enter this mkt again. Don't guess, what is next! Just follow what is happening, and do the risk management BEFORE, NOT AFTER the entry. I can tell you two things for sure. 1. Intraday Volatility will jump to extreme on Thursday (such as in case of the USD crosses or Gold), so possibly both bulls and bears with relatively tight stops can be purged same day. 2. Do not trade something, which is not showing the smallest sign of trending. If there is no trend, and odds are 50/50, it is impossible to take reasonable risk as a trendfollower. One of the most difficult thing in trading is to be able to stay away from an instrument, while keeping flexible approach to re-enter again.
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28wagram
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Still very helpful and well supported by clear, well-artculated, and rigorous analytics. Thank you for sharing. Acknowledging trendless situations and lack of clarity is actually - i personally find - very value-adding and educative. Thanks again fpr sharing It takes balls to say "I don't know..." Bravo!
Kumowizard
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Thank you very much! I really appreciate your feedback, and I also hope my analysis help most of people who read them. This is the reason I share my ideas. What is working well for me, may be implemented by others too, or at least my posts give people some more colour.