SPX trading in the middle of its trading range [2040, 2130].
The range is drifting up by 16pts per month.
I think there is a slight advantage to a continuation to 2040 but all markets are well supported from here and a penetration lower is not trivial apparently (as per yesterday rejection)...
Big picture: I think the rally may extend to 2150 on the 19th of June 2015 before a more significant correction.
NFP today will be the focus
Trading: I am still short to 2040 and would buy dax at 11,000 and bund at 150 (which we nearly touched yesterday).
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YaKa
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Scenario: maybe we get 3 sharp days down to 2040 followed by an equally sharp rebound thursday/friday to reach back to 2100 again. that would be crazy but it is only 4% after all (which the dax is already doing every 2days).
scott_minnesota
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the next bradley middle term date after this weekend is may23-24th. i think we may sell of for the next 10 days with bottom the week of the 22nd, then rebound. you should check out the success of the turn dates for 2014. amazing. i became a believer after and didn't benefit from the major swings last fall-winter
YaKa
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Let s see.
What i see right now is that the area below is really supporting and weekly close want to be high
what could happen though is a dive rebound end of week and another dive followed by rebound.
Any broken clock is right twice a day. I am joking but seriously dont expect this thing to be right too many times in a row.
YaKa
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if it is right about todays top, it is already very good:)
scott_minnesota
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may it be right!!! i didn't expect todays huge run up and had 1/2 my positions in before today's action. I added another 1/2 today. fully committed. a/hours spy is in the right direction. 50 cents off the intraday highs. turn dates are tricky. check out the bradley site and compare it to your extensive work. I would value your opinion. my twitter handle @scott_minnesota
thx scott
i remember spy did exactly that the opposite way in dec or nov and hit 2115 much earlier than the future itself ever did it.
i am not sure if these moves mean something or if they are just a reflection of how illiquid the etf can be close to closes.. What s your take?
scott_minnesota
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check out the after hours volume. over 16mm shares of spy traded
the link shows 501,000 spy contracts traded at 3:17 cst after market closed at 208.56 massive selling a/hs dropped spy 40 cents in a few minutes
scott_minnesota
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should say shares not contracts. considering syp never traded at 208.85 today. never lower than 211 during market hours, it appears a major seller showed up and accepted a $3 hair cut for liquidity. who knows how much more that seller liquidated during this session. this huge bull day on horrible job news two days after yellen said markets were overvalued, feels like a massive setup. "that's my inner conspiracy side showing"