(1) Prior to recent rally we were in a cycle than began at around 2021 and peaked at 2078
(2) The recent move down took the form of an A,B,C correction retracing exactly 78.6% of the band width
(3) At the bottom of the retracement, the bulls stepped in and staged what will likely be a failed five wave move that may go higher than expected. Fib extensions are shown and suggest possible target levels for wave 3. Points 4 and 5 are for illustration only.
(4) Last week I offered the possibility of seeing a new high before breaking down. On Monday, though, the overlap of the retracement and the beginning of a new cycle appeared very messy and created a measure of uncertainty but I did higher lows and OPEX was always in the back of my mind.
(5) Notwithstanding firming oil prices, we face serious headwinds in the form of earnings, global economic weakness, a strong yen and the correlation of our market with the Nikkei, particularly when the yen is used to calculate the value of the SPX
(6) I think its just a question of time before we see a failure that could take us to the 200DMA or, possibly, lower