I've been thinking the markets are overvalued for a while, let's say for the last 2 years.
Charting on a log graph tells me otherwise.
Past 2 years were definitely within the channel however now the US equity market is entering the bubble territory for sure.
It's interesting to note that Trump thinks the markets are overvalued - I believe it's something he said before he became president. Let's acknowledge the fact that he understands money better than any previous US presidents. I think he'll be the guy when the bubble pops, that will say - deal with it. Bubbles happen, bubbles pop, life goes on and markets recover.
Anyway, that's a side note but I do think this is a very interesting chart - BULLS PROCEED WITH CAUTION.
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'Entering bubble territory' is an opinion - technically it's entering the upper channel of a channel based on trendlines going back to the 70s so I do think it is significant.
As demonstrated in the previous years there is still room to run but I think the probability of another 5 year bull run without a major correction (20%+) is close to zero.
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Significant rejection at the middle trendline. Let's see how this plays out.
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Is this the start of a 20%+ correction? Where does it end?