SPX on the 30Min is showing we are consolidating in a wedge. An ascending wedge is a bearish pattern. If you ask me - having a wedge, in a wedge, in another wedge should be extremely bearish. LOL We are in a white wedge (could be ascending wedge based on support angle), inside a blue ascending wedge, which is inside the main multi-week white ascending wedge. The white multi-week ascending wedge will be shown in the Daily or Weekly view.
10WeekMA double jumped higher which is good. Price is closer to 10WeekMA. Price cross of MA will confirm downtrend. I am waiting for price to break the current white wedge pattern by tomorrow. (SPX is showing after market hours 23:00). If price breaks above wedge or goes to new ATH's, ALL BETS ARE OFF. I will be pulling out of short/puts if we go above $316 SPY.
I will update Daily and Weekly view momentarily.
News: French riots/protests over pensions (similar to US upcoming issue with pensions funded by corporate debt). 2 days ago - youtube.com/watch?v=pPHbbIKQ5Eg
Repo Crisis Fueled by 4 Banks, Fed Balance sheet increasing at SAME level as market Hmmmm - all sourced information Today - youtube.com/watch?v=outb-2Msd14
hard to have a strong view before the China tariff announcements. our options data shows there is huge open interest that could spark some big moves moving into 12/20 which should bust us out of those wedges one way or the other...
MoneyPatterns
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@SpotGammaModel, Yes. If I am wrong, at least I made the best educated decision I could. Didn't go too hard with capital.
12+ weeks bullish in SPY and it's officially overbought, so I know I'm not bias. I am thinking Xmas week 12/23 is perfect for rug pull, so I have Puts around here.
Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.
The_Unwind
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Excellent chart. And great post.
I am watching your analysis closely...
MoneyPatterns
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@The_Unwind, You have really good work.
I think you are right in a way. Charts lined up today and we are bearish on the 4HR on SPX/SPY.
Last time we had the SPX turn bearish on 4Hr is when we had the micro selloff that didn't pan out. We should be getting a little selloff here. I think best to take profits and reposition sometime in January for SPY Puts.
I think the capital gains monster is keeping the masses in until year end because these selloffs lack downward momentum.
OR the Fed "not QE" and other world QE is keeping markets up.
Hard to tell with mixed news at this point. Keep your head up brother. The big short is coming sometime next year I believe.