From the low in November in the 5% "lock-limit-down" move after the US Presidential Election, we begin a new UPTREND.
I updated the trading chat room "Key Hidden Levels" with this analysis as the rally unfolded out of the December-January trading range that is shown where there are 20-days at one price. There were also 7-weeks at one price, which implies that the market would advance for both 20-days and for 7-weeks once it "disconnected" from that price. Disconnected means to "range expand away from" the mode and to trade with an entire range above the mode. You can see both did that where I have yellow and red arrows marking Day-1 and Week-1.
The rally time has exhausted, and typically that means you have an amount of time equal to the rally to congest and test the mode. If the mode holds, then assume a larger uptrend. You can trade short for the next few days or the next few weeks, but keep in mind that I didn't analyze the monthly trend on this chart.
Either way, I just wanted to show you how mechanically and mathematically we analyze trends in the "Key Hidden Levels Chat Room." Sidenote: We do use emotions too, but that's for another chart on another day.
Cheers,
Tim
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Monthly time frame can easily be seen on the daily chart by using the "MTPC" or "Multi-Time-Period-Chart" function in the indicator section. You can see there are 18 months at one price, which implies much more time for the rally.
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And there's a 14-week trend too that is from the 2016 low...
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The longer term, MONTHLY trend reached the measured move right at the highest day and halted the advance.
Where would be a good target buy zone starter position 10%
timwest
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@work1411, Great question. I expect to be publishing an entry for longs based on this methodology as they set up. So, if you want to be notified, just click on "follow" and you will get my (infrequent) updates.
timwest
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Monthly Time Analysis shows 18-month bull market started not too long ago.
@summer6, You are welcome. We are in the 9th month of an 18 month rally. Good to know, right?!
A-shot
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I was about to ask if you are buying this dip (today) or waiting for it to go further to buy-in there? Given the TAM analsys, where do you plan long trades in such a scenario?
timwest
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@2use, I wait for a few things. The daily time frame suggests waiting 20 days from the time that time expired.
timwest
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@2use, It is also very early in the weekly time frame. Time just expired and another 4-5 weeks are needed to settle out. The way to trade here is to expect choppy action instead of trending action.