Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 9, 2025

🔮 Nightly SPY / SPX Scenarios for July 9, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍

📦 Tariff Pause Extended to August 1
President Trump delayed the July 9 tariff deadline, pushing negotiations into early August. Markets reacted with muted volatility, suggesting growing comfort that deals will be struck—yet widespread uncertainty remains

💵 Junk Bonds Rally Amid Tariff Tangling
Despite ongoing tariff risks, investors are doubling down on U.S. high-yield (junk) bonds. They anticipate the Fed may refrain from tightening further—favoring spread-tightening to around 7–8% yields—reflecting confidence in credit quality

🏦 Fed Faces Tough Call on Rate Path
New business surveys show conflicting signals: mixed revenue outlooks, cautious spending, and ongoing tariff pressures. The Fed must weigh slower growth against inflationary risks—keeping the door open to rate cuts in the autumn but unlikely before September

📊 Equities Firm Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Stocks showed resilience—S&P 500 and futures held position—after Monday’s tariff-triggered dip. Dip-buying and expectations of extended trade talks kept markets steady despite policy noise

📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Wednesday, July 9:

All Day – Ongoing U.S.–tariff negotiations; markets focused on any progress toward formal deal-making or extension terms.

Midday – Watch for headlines on tariff letters to 14 countries and any movement in trade discussions.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #Fed #fixedincome #credit #technicalanalysis