I Spy With My Little Eye, A 50 Day MA Rejection

27 thg 10, 2020

Hey guys, sorry for the last post today. Let's get right to it. So European and Asian markets were notably lower overnight, while US Markets were relatively flat this morning in seesaw fashion. Vix saw a new high at 33.80 earlier, off the back of some minor weakness on the majors, but lost steam as we entered the afternoon session. SPY had a short-lived rally back to it's 50 DAY MA (340.25) this morning, but was met with a clear rejection, as expected. A close below 340.25 today would mark the second day in a row below this key level. If we lose the short-term Channel support again, I expect to see a revisit of yesterday's lows around 335.60. If we lose that level today, the next major support is around 330, where the 21 period EMA on the weekly, and the 100 day MA meet. Let's see if the bulls can recapture the 50 day MA before the close.

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27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

Spy back in the green on the day, along with the Nasdaq. We're now at the high of the day again, and seemingly gaining momentum. We had a similar buy program yesterday around 1:30PM which completely reversed the down trend. Corporate buy-backs or PPT?

27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

Looks like we're getting rejected, yet again, at the 50 Day MA. Can the bears defend this key resistance level for much longer? The bulls are not giving up, and the bears have been seemingly extinct since the lows of March. Every dip is met with ferocious demand (albeit historically low volume), and every new record high, broken shortly thereafter. Absent a clear break below 340, it's anyone's game at the moment. Let's see if the bears show up at power hour with a message for the bulls...

27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

Showing some weakness here as we approach power hour. It's been a seesaw all day as we continue to trade in a tight range, but slowly work our way higher. Nasdaq is also gaining ground, while the dow trades sideways... A break below the 200 period MA on the hourly (338.82), could see further downside, as we appear to be rolling over at the moment...

27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

The past hour saw the weakest volume print in I don't know how long (just 220k contracts). Market depth is terrible, and it seems anyone with conviction in a direction, and a few billion dollars under management, could move this entire market right now. Are we about to see a big move to the downside?

27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

Sitting at the new LOD (337.99). Looking especially bearish on the 5 minute. Bears showing up one by one. Can they take us back to yesterday's low of 335.63?

27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

Since around 2PM, SPY is down half a percent, while Vix is up 2.7%. We saw a similar decoupling yesterday near the close. Let's see if Vix blows up to new highs, or if SPY catches a bid and Vix get's hammered once again...

27 thg 10, 2020

Ghi chú

That's all folks! Very strange day of price action imo. We traded in a tight range all day with no clear direction. We were rejected off the 50 day MA several times, and lost the 200 period MA on the hourly. Regardless, the bears are fast asleep it seems. Even with no supports on the hourly, the bulls were able to hold onto the channel support, and on very low volume. Tomorrow is another day, I hope you guys enjoyed the analysis, and I look forward to seeing you all then. Have a great night, and thanks for your time! Cheers, Michael.