Welcome back traders, I hope you had a wonderful Christmas and New Year!
We're now getting back into the charts it's a brand new year, new opportunities and what a start it has been :) cryptocurrencies are through the roof!
Today I'm breaking down two assets which are breaking records and funnily enough one of cryptos most well known rivalries, ripple vs. stellar.
As you will know by now, both of these cryptocurrencies have been making headlines for the past month, their growth has been tremendous and to those who took my advice at the beginning of 2017 on both of these assets will have a very nice portfolio, I've received many kind messages with people sharing their results and that's what I love most about this business!
However, as good as all this sounds it's at times like this when investors are blinded by 10x and 20x returns, and I come along to bring them back to reality, markets move in cycles and I hate to see traders buy a market top or hold through a 95% correction.
XRP current price = $3.68 1 month ago = $0.25
STR current price = $0.86 1 month ago = $0.09
Just take a look at those figures for a second, that's in one month alone. Similar to the moves we experienced in April/May 2017.
First, let's take a look at Ripple on the left (XRP/BTC)
As we can see from the chart the average increase is 1494% including the present price increase but not accounting for the 5412% total increase in 2017 as this was broken up by a 69% correction.
Since the beginning of December 2017 price has increased by 1890% as XRP makes headlines all over the world, it is now the second largest cryptocurrency by marketcap.
Let's take a look at the downside of these moves.
As you can see these impulsive moves are followed by a correction greater than 69% and actually two of them resulting in a 95% decline.
The average correction is 86%.
Now, picking out a market top is not simple although I have done this in the past.
If we experience a correction from the current level you can expect a correction of at least 50% before the move up continues.
A lot of individuals claim XRP will hit $10 and for their satisfaction I have included a target level for this (this price level is based on the current BTC price) which is the exact same percentage increase as we seen in 2017... The total move = 5412% from low to high.
If we do see price achieve $10 the correction to follow will be of significance, I expect XRP to lose more than 70% of its value at this price level.
Now, we have Stellar on the right (STR/BTC)
The average price increase is 2487% including the present price increase.
Since September 2017 price has increased by 2794% bringing it back into the top 10 on coinmarketcap.com.
We can see that both corrections for Stellar resulted in a 96% decline which is extremely similar to XRP.
Again, I see a correction of at least 50% for Stellar very shortly.
Taking all of this analysis into account, these charts need to be compared to the asset quoted in USD, I will update this post in the future with the comparison.
I will also be updating the idea on a shorter timeframe to pinpoint where the correction will occur.
Feel free to check out my previous posts on market cycles.
Bitcoin:
Altcoins:
I wish you all the utmost success in 2018.
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Sellers are now starting to push price lower, the long upper wicks are a key sign of a new corrective phase beginning.
As you can see from previous market tops, they all show similar characteristics to the current move.
The closing price of the weekly candle is crucial, if it remains the same as it is now, be prepared for a large decline over the next 2 months... I'm expecting a correction of 70%.
Safe trading everyone!
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The correction is well underway for XRP.
If we lose support at $2.40, price will return to $1.60.
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XRP is absolutely tanking now that support was broken.
We will likely see price find the next support at $1.50.
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Price decline by 51% before seeing buying volume push price back up to $2.
I still see further declines going forward.
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As mentioned we would see further declines and now price has corrected by 65%.
I believe the value will stabilise around $1.
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Ripple is holding support at $0.67, if this is lost the next major support level is $0.40.
I advise to anyone holding from the high of $3 to start paying attention to market cycles and get out of your positions ahead of time.
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Similar view for Stellar, price sitting on key support, if this is lost we will see further declines.
If there's is one lad I can count on it's LewisGlasgow. All these new traders entering the market, that haven't traded a day in there life, posting just horrible, horrible trading ideas. Saying "the market is getting ready to make another pump". Lol ok, a 12 year old could use the 3-4 day MACD as the only indicator and make more reasonable trades then a majority of these newb "traders" entering the crypto world. Way too many people trading on emotion, which I will admit to when I first started trading several years ago, and it is something hard to fight but when you finally forget all the FUD and FOMO you'll be a better trader for one and whenever you go check out your portfolio you'll get that, "Damn it feels good to be a gangsta." feeling. Anyways, good TA brotha and this is why I fucks with you, because you don't get caught up with all the other traders and actually see the "Bigger picture". Good Day!
LewisGlasgow
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@lakerz690, you don't know how much I appreciate this, thanks mate.
Lewis what you are calling a correction is actually whales dumping and stealing money of the top. The create the pump and dump and leave everyone else crying. The perfect crime. No laws broken. Nobody understands what happened and words like correction make it sound healthy. It's not.
LewisGlasgow
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@Quantum.vapour, call it whatever you please, but technically it's known as a corrective phase, it's natural, people lose money that's why markets exist.
Smart money vs dumb money, it's a harsh reality.
quantum.vapour
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@LewisGlasgow, it's Orwellian to call it a correction which means proper place. The market as it is takes advantage of the vunrable and poorest. That is my only problem with these pump and dumps that are orchestrated. This system isn't just is the problem.
KyleMcQuade
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@Quantum.vapour, It's not even a crime, its perfectly logical- there's no better place to sell than the top lol. Wouldn't you, if you could?
MoneyTreeMaster
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@Quantum.vapour, people wants easy money they play casino rather than trade and in gambling only casino is winner , Smart money vs dumb money, it's a harsh reality.
quantum.vapour
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@DavidDau, Hushlers take money from marks. Its the same game different words.