TSLA Rally: What's Next?

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Tesla is currently trading within an upward channel on the 1-hour chart. This channel suggests continued bullish momentum, but we should remain cautious of potential pullbacks as it approaches the upper trendline.

Price Action Analysis:

Channel Formation:

TSLA is respecting an upward trend channel. The current price action is near the upper boundary, indicating possible overextension and potential for a pullback.
Watch for a retest of the mid-channel trendline (around $318-$320) as a key support level. If it holds, it may provide a solid bounce opportunity for scalping.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Immediate Resistance: $328.71 (upper channel line). Breaking above this level with volume could push the price toward $335-$340.
Immediate Support: $322-$320 (mid-channel line and EMA support). If it breaks below this, expect a test of the $310-$312 area.
Key Levels Below: $294.07 is a strong support zone, aligning with previous consolidation and a psychological level.

Volume Profile:

Increasing volume with each leg up indicates strong buyer interest. However, be cautious of a volume divergence if we see decreasing volume on higher prices, suggesting weakening momentum.

MACD and Momentum Indicators:

The MACD on the 1-hour chart is extended but shows no signs of bearish crossover yet. Keep an eye on a potential bearish crossover, which could signal a short-term pullback.
RSI (not shown but inferred) is likely nearing overbought territory. Consider this when planning for scalp entries and exits.

Scalping Opportunities:

Look for quick scalps at the key intraday levels:
Long Entry: Around $320-$322 with a tight stop below $318, targeting a quick move back to $328.

Short Entry: If it rejects off $328-$330, consider a short scalp targeting the $320 support.
Swing Trade Ideas:

A strong daily close above $330 could set up a swing trade toward the $340 level, given the recent bullish momentum.
Conversely, a break below $320 could lead to a deeper pullback, targeting $310-$312 for a
swing entry.

Disclaimer:
This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please perform your own research before making any trading decisions.

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UPDATE: For Nov. 12, 2024

Looking at Tesla’s 1-hour chart, we’re seeing some strong bullish momentum, but volume is slowing down, which might signal hesitation from buyers. Key resistance is around $358—if it breaks through, we could see more gains.

For scalping tomorrow: Watch for a push above $358; if it doesn’t break, consider a short play with tight stops.

For a swing trade: If it holds above $350, there’s potential to aim for $370 this week. If it drops below $350, though, a pullback to $340 could be on the horizon.

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current price is around $333.49, showing that it has pulled back from recent highs and is moving below the key resistance level of $358 mentioned earlier. Here’s an updated outlook based on the current setup:
1. Bullish Momentum Shift: The previous bullish momentum appears to be cooling off as the price is now below the moving averages and recent support levels, indicating possible bearish pressure.
2. Resistance & Support Levels:
• Immediate Resistance: $340 could act as the first resistance level on the upside, with the next level near $350. A move above these levels might signal renewed bullish interest, but the stock will need strong volume to sustain that.
• Key Support: If Tesla continues to decline, support around $330 could come into play, with the next level near $320 if it breaks down further.

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Key Levels and Trade Setups for Nov. 13

Tesla has been moving in a well-defined ascending channel, showing a solid uptrend despite a bit of a pullback recently. This setup offers some interesting scalping and swing trade opportunities for tomorrow. Here’s a look at the key levels to watch, along with entry and exit ideas for both quick scalps and slightly longer holds.

Scalping Plan

Key Levels to Watch
Support: $328 and $322.50 are key support levels to keep an eye on.

Resistance: $335 and $340 could act as resistance if the price heads upward.

Bullish Scalping Setup:
Entry: Look to enter around $328 if Tesla holds this level in the early session, or if it breaks above $335 with strong volume.

Target: Aim for $335 first, and if it has momentum, $340 could be in play.
Stop Loss: Keep a tight stop just below $328 to manage risk.

Bearish Scalping Setup:
Entry: If Tesla breaks below $328 and looks weak, consider shorting near that level.

Target: Look for a quick move down to $322.50.

Stop Loss: Place a stop just above $328 to protect against a reversal.

Tips for Scalping
Volume is Key: If you’re looking for a strong move, volume is your friend. Watch for higher-than-usual volume at the levels mentioned.

Momentum Check: Use the 1-minute or 5-minute MACD to confirm entry; a bullish MACD for a long position, or a bearish MACD for a short.

Swing Trade Setup
Important Levels
Support: $320 and $315 are key support zones to watch for bounces.

Resistance: Major resistance sits around $350, with a higher target near $362 if the stock pushes higher.

Bullish Swing Setup:
Entry: You can look to enter near $320-$328 if Tesla finds support here. Or, if Tesla breaks above $335 with good volume, that could signal a continuation of the trend.

Targets:
First Target: $350, which is likely to see some resistance.

Second Target: $362, around the upper channel boundary.
Stop Loss: Place it just below $320 to protect your position if the setup fails.

Bearish Swing Setup (only if trend reverses):
Entry: Go short if Tesla breaks and holds below $320, signaling potential downside.

Targets:
First Target: $310, with a further target around $300.

Stop Loss: A stop above $328 will limit your risk in case of a bounce.

Directional Bias and What to Watch
Current Bias: Tesla is still in an uptrend, so the bias is slightly bullish as long as it stays above $320. However, if we see a break below this level, things could start leaning bearish.

Momentum: Watch for confirmation from MACD and RSI. An oversold RSI near support or a MACD crossover could give you extra confidence on a long entry, while overbought levels near resistance might signal it’s time to lock in profits.

Bottom Line
Tesla’s in an interesting spot, holding within its uptrend channel but showing signs of a pullback. For scalpers, keep an eye on $328 and $335 with a close watch on volume to confirm any quick moves. For swing traders, look for bounces near $320-$328 for a long setup, with profit targets around $350 and $362. But if it drops below $320, a short trade down to $310 or $300 could be worth exploring.

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For those who wants to try out Gameplan for Option, check below:

Based on the analysis of Tesla's price action and momentum:
Current Market Outlook for Tesla
Tesla is still within an upward-trending channel, which generally favors a bullish bias. However, there are signs of weakening momentum, especially with the MACD showing a recent bearish crossover and price pulling back toward support levels. Here’s what I am thinking for both potential directions:

Bullish Case (Buy Call Option):
Bearish Case (Buy Put Option):

Given the conflicting signals (bullish trend but weakening momentum):
Wait for Confirmation: Tesla is at a pivotal point near support. Before entering, I will watch how it behaves around $328-$320 tomorrow. If it bounces with strong volume, a call option could be the right choice. If it breaks down, then a put option would make more sense.

Directional Bias: Slightly bullish, but only if support holds. If support doesn’t hold, it could quickly shift bearish.

Bottom Line: For now, I’d leaning towards a call option if support shows strength, but be ready to switch to a put option if Tesla breaks down below $328 with volume. This will keep me flexible and aligned with the market direction as it unfolds.

Setup:
Call Option
Trade: Buy the $330 Call with a 1-2 week expiration.

Entry Timing: Enter if Tesla shows strength above the $328 level or breaks above $335 with strong volume.

Target Exit: Look to exit if Tesla approaches the $350 or $362 resistance, or if the option achieves a 50% profit.

Stop Loss: Set a mental stop if the option loses 50% of its value, especially if Tesla falls below the key support level ($320).

Put Option
Trade: Buy the $325 Put with a 1-2 week expiration.

Entry Timing: Enter if Tesla drops and holds below $328, confirming a potential downtrend.

Target Exit: Look to take profits if Tesla reaches the $320 level (first target) or drops toward $310-$300.

Stop Loss: Set a mental stop if the option loses 50% of its value or if Tesla recovers above the key support level of $328.

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Update for Nov. 15, 2024

Bearish Bias: TSLA is in a downtrend, with key support at $307. A break below this level could lead to further downside, targeting $294 or lower.

Potential Reversal: To signal a bullish reversal, TSLA would need to break above $321 with strong volume. If it does, the next target could be around $344.67.

Watch the $307 support closely to gauge the next move.

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