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The Big Picture. A consolidation.

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Long in this rally until ER. General short bias until the short interest falls below 10%.
Higher Lows, Lower Highs = Consolidation

After it failed to break the ATH it fell to the 196 level where it proved it has a support there. However the lack of consistency in Elon's numbers, the verbal war against Apple after its announcement of the iCar, the deceiving reaction of the market for Model X hasn't gained too much traction for it to resume an uptrend.
Within the range there is still room for trading both sides, Bearish and Bullish until the consolidation breaks to ether side and creates a trend.
This is forming a short term bullish rally towards ER. ER will miss, but the numbers have been weak for a long time already, the important part is the guidance. If this is not convincing this will bring the stock price down and could compromise the support at 196.
Agree with most your analysis but I think the time has expired on this high flying stock. I think it will break shortly below the uptrend and it would ratchet down periodically until it reaches a reasonable multiple. It is not worth the risk to play up and down with this stock as the risk of a significant downturn is so great. this stock will not break the All time high anytime soon (if ever).
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Agreed! I'm selling weekly puts to make low risk profits.
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luzmarball13 ExcitingTechnology
if you are selling puts you are expecting TSLA to go bullish, correct? do you have a target?
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Madrid, what do you mean by ... General short bias until the short interest falls below 10%.
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Madrid luzmarball13
Tesla has been driving with a big bear by its side. This rally is just part of the bounce inside the consolidating range. The only way Tesla can have a sustained uptrend is if Elon Musk is capable of meeting realistic delivery numbers and turns Tesla into a profitable company. Otherwise the Short interest will gravitate heavily and Bears will gain control again. Even with the previous rally from 180 to 270 the short interest didn't go down, so that's a strong signal that the Bears are around and not willing to give up. The technical indicators show a firm support at 212, good enough to reach ER with a bullish leg, but I doubt this will be enough to try to attempt a higher close at the ATH levels.
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Thank you so much, Madrid. Are you a Day Trader?
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Madrid luzmarball13
It depends. Most of the time I'm using the Daily time frame.
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luzmarball13 luzmarball13
WOW, Madrid you were right TSLA falls below 10% are you a coach?
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