Hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico is upon us early.
If rigs go offline because of a vigorous hurricane season, production will be shut-in and crude prices will rise. The first storm of the season has already made land-fall, and the usual season is August-November, so the storms are early this year.
How good a job can OPEC do in terms of maintaining production cuts, discipline and compliance within OPEC and non-OPEC?
If OPEC succeeds at making the cartel march to its tune, then all will be well. In addition, future even deeper cuts will help support the oil price. What realistically are the chances of that?
Is there a credit crunch looming in the patch?
At current lower crude prices, U.S. shale production could be negatively impacted over the next few months and some production could come off line as producer cash flow dries up and some of the hedges from last year begin to run off. Less drilling activity will put upward pressure on prices.
Where is the U.S. dollar really going?
If U.S. rates are going to the moon, then the U.S. dollar will rise and commodity prices fall. But what if the Fed is done with the current rate cycle? Recent strength in WTI this past week is probably a reflection of a weaker U.S. dollar—is this a sign of things to come?
If rigs go offline because of a vigorous hurricane season, production will be shut-in and crude prices will rise. The first storm of the season has already made land-fall, and the usual season is August-November, so the storms are early this year.
How good a job can OPEC do in terms of maintaining production cuts, discipline and compliance within OPEC and non-OPEC?
If OPEC succeeds at making the cartel march to its tune, then all will be well. In addition, future even deeper cuts will help support the oil price. What realistically are the chances of that?
Is there a credit crunch looming in the patch?
At current lower crude prices, U.S. shale production could be negatively impacted over the next few months and some production could come off line as producer cash flow dries up and some of the hedges from last year begin to run off. Less drilling activity will put upward pressure on prices.
Where is the U.S. dollar really going?
If U.S. rates are going to the moon, then the U.S. dollar will rise and commodity prices fall. But what if the Fed is done with the current rate cycle? Recent strength in WTI this past week is probably a reflection of a weaker U.S. dollar—is this a sign of things to come?
