USDJPY might have resumed the long term uptrend from the 2011 lows, so we will be looking to buy back in, after closing longs in profit for now. Watch the overhead resistance levels and study this chart. I'll update it periodically. I'd reccomend against shorting this, and would rather focus on long gold and euro, and/or Aussie.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ps: the outlook is bullish for equities, and long term bullish for the dollar.
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Perfect, seems like the pullback starts now.
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Keep an eye on it, I'd reccomend not trading it though. Only buy when the drop is done.
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The trend isn't stopping anytime soon, what you can do is fade short term weakness, like the recent decline before the BOJ news.
50% of the weekly move...if this is a 1-2-3 then the low has to be taken out...before we get a longer term up move....on this 1 leg down...from the H&S top.
IvanLabrie
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@RobbyWestHouston, thanks for stopping by.
I have a qualm with the wave counts. I think wave counts severely handicap traders...trying to predict too far in the future. I'd rather follow the now more. Post a chart to clarify though, would be simpler to follow you.
Also, you're in the short? (I'm not, but already heavily in the mud, with euro, gold, silver, aussie longs)
Cheers!
RobbyWestHouston
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@IvanLabrie, I am not short. In my opinion it is not ready to short. We need time for it to sit in this area before it will do anything. In my 20+ years of doing this stuff and trying to teach computers how to find patterns and do trading of markets via techs or levels or patterns. I have found 3 basic things that all markets do. 1. they respect high volume / price area. 2. they all move in 1-2-3. 3. they have basic patterns that work around 75% of the time. H&S is one and multi bottom / top. Also markets do return to 50% of the move +/- 15% most of the time but that is less than 60% of the time from everything I have learn of all the time I have done markets.
As far as all this Elliot wave stuff, computers that I have spent a lot of time trying to teach how to look at markets always came back with 1-2-3. You would get a 1-2-3 from patterns of H&S / W/M or any kind of multi top or multi bottom. That was all I looked on your chart for USDJPY, and why I commented about going long. I do not think it is a long. I think you will get a move down to take out the low of this first drive down. To me I can see what looks like H&S and it appears with out measuring the move to be around 50%. For me I will expect sideways then a push lower. My view you have H&S and 1-2-? how I see it.
That is just my opinion.
IvanLabrie
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@RobbyWestHouston, I see what you mean, but well, I'll have to disagree with the overall idea, I'd rather base my observation in more information that only the notion of it lacking another move down due to the expected wave behavior. There are many subtle variables involved, which that type of analysis overlooks.
Thanks for the comment, and good night.