We're currently in a short position in USDJPY, aiming to capture the resumption of the weekly downtrend in this pair. The two targets on chart are time at mode targets obtained from the daily, but there's a possibility that USDJPY reaches down into the 2009 monthly uptrend's mode, or most frequent price in the advance.
The uptrend from the 2009 low culminated in time near the top, and since then, USDJPY has seen very sharp selloffs, in a volatile and tight range until it recently broke down after Japan announced the introduction of negative interest rates. It is expected that the BOJ will intervene if USDJPY reaches 105, which aligns with the 2nd target on chart. That being said, the 2009 uptrend mode range is between 101.769 and 102.611, and it's implied to be reached, after the monthly uptrend expired in time.
Good luck if trading this pair. Cheers,
Ivan Labrie. Time at Mode FX
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Waiting for volatility to recede. Safer to stand aside and watch for now.
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We might see a rally, as price has moved above the downtrend mode. We could see it go as high as 118.04 but there are strong resistances on the way up. Let's wait for now, and reasess.
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Took a long from 113.7 and closed at 114.245. I see the move up has been retraced and we're trading at the mode again. It's wiser to stand aside, or trade the range because price action isn't convingly bullish quite yet, but it isn't safe to short either.
After dropping to support, we saw an orderly uptrend in the daily chart, but now price turned down sharply at the level from where the last leg down took off. I'm seeing bears showing strength for some time here. Conflicts a bit with EURJPY longs, but it might be safe to be in shorts. (I'm flat at the moment)
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6 days ago "...but now price turned down sharply at the level from where the last leg down took off. I'm seeing bears showing strength for some time here." Downtrend resuming as expected, it just took a detour, consolidating briefly.
Can you talk a little about the indicators you use here? How are the up/ down boxes formed, is this similar to Renko/ Mboxwave? Also, I noticed in a post a year or so ago you were using a variation of the Weis Wave. Is there a reason you no longer use it? Thanks!
IvanLabrie
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Weis wave, yes, I'm sticking to the techniques devised by Tim West. I had experimented with other tools, but they are not needed with my current understanding of his methodology.
-The boxes are a 1 month true range overlay.
-RgExp is a volume indicator that highlights big range bars, where volume expands as well (confirming the move)
-RgMov is a trend indicator, and a way to detect sentiment and confirm setups.
-CCI: useful momentum indicator, set to 11 periods (half a month in trading days)
-ATR: average true range, 11 periods as well. Useful for many things.
-VPVR: volume profile of the bars visible on screen. (plots volume per price level) Can help pinpoint support and resistance levels objectively, based on extreme high or low volume zones.
-TW_UB: red, black, or green colored bars, based on, #1 new low, #2 inside or outside bar, or #3 new high, irrespective of the position of the open and close.
-R.E.Signal: Highlights range expansion bars.
For more information, check out Tim West's and my publications and feel free to stop by the Key Hidden Levels chatroom.
thanks for the reply. Tim West's indicator set looks interesting. With RgExp, is the volume compared to the previous bars, or from the same bars previous session? I'm looking for a volume based indicator that works intraday forex and highlights volume anomalies. Might this be the one?
IvanLabrie
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I don't know, I think it's the previous bar but Tim usually uses more complex code for his indicators (like Rgmov).
I have seen the formula for that one but not for rgexp.
SobolPAMM
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may be
IvanLabrie
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I think we can see some upside, after the resistance has been broken.
The next levels are the light blue line on my chart, at 114 more or less, and then the weekly high at 114.55.
If above we can see it rally considerably.
Alexander_Nikitin
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Yes, mate. I am also looking for bearish on this pair)
IvanLabrie
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Thanks, let's see how it goes...saw quite a bit of bullish posters today.