Though oil is quite bullish here I'm playing for a 4$ (maybe 5$) drop ( not 44!!!) on my private account for a testback of the blue trendline or the 50 SMA. The RSI is printing a divergence and I think when the dollar is printing it's last bounce in the following weeks that will affect oil also, so it can drop into its daily cycle low.
It's not a "Let's bet the farm on it" trade. Just a small game I think this will be my last trade in oil this year.
NEW SHORT trade from 55.93$.
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Adding to the short position here. I see a key reversal forming by the day end.
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Playing out as expected. I'm wating for minimum 52.50$ as a test of the blue trendline. MACD is crossing over and giving the sign for the short also. The nov.8 short positions are deep in profit by now. Actually the cumulative P/L is in great profit on my account regarding this oil short.
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Not much of a pullback. I guess the drop continues today.
translated from a relevant article...
"During 1982 commodities bouce ranging 57% on average, gold bouce the most, lead least, gold> aluminum > suger > copper > oil > lead, the first bounce after it hit the bottom rise 28% on average, then down 12%, second wave up with 41% rising."
last july oil was 42$ per barrel, if we count that 41%, that's almost 58.
Just FYI.
popshvt
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hi arpi:
a grand cycle economist has been always accurate, according to his theory, which he drew conclusion from Kondratiev grand cycle, and a typical example is 1982 and 1986 the bounce in bearish cycle in commodity started from 1979, he said commodity will form a double bottom on monthly chart, one is in Dec 2015, another will be expected in 2018 - 2019, and the possible lowest price will show up in 2019. Started from Dec 2015 we experienced a whole year bounce, first wave up last 3 - 4 month, then price come down and in July 2016 commodity has started the second wave up(which, by his theory will likely last 17 month), currently, we are in the 17th month, how do you see the cycle, do we have another daily cycle to grinding higher? otherwise, I think it's a good short into 2018 bottom.
thanks, my English is not good, I tried my best to describe it.
popshvt
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@popshvt, in his theory, commodity will be the best oppotunity in our generation
popshvt
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on average, the first wave bounce 54%, then down 38%, second wave up 157% (the second wave will be stronger)
"During 1982 commodities bouce ranging 57% on average, gold bouce the most, lead least, gold> aluminum > suger > copper > oil > lead, the first bounce after it hit the bottom rise 28% on average, then down 12%, second wave up with 41% rising."
last july oil was 42$ per barrel, if we count that 41%, that's almost 58.
Just FYI.