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Oil: Bottom's in

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I'm fairly certain the bottom in oil is here to stay, and we can expect a gigantic rally to emerge from the depths of this decline. Now that we had the biggest large traders' liquidation of longs, according to the CoT data, and also had prominent oil bulls give up, the ground is fertile for a situation like the previous bottom at 26 something when oil giant T. Boone Pickens called the bottom, to then quickly 'sell in disgust' triggering a gigantic buy signal for us wathing with astute eyes (props to Tim West, he was the one who spotted this): http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04...

This was a great long signal for oil , and I think history will repeat itself now.
I will enter oil longs again, I recently sold in disgust myself, after the drop to 47.54 didn't slow down, going instantly to the recent weekly downtrend target zone I had published about before, and also, formed a strong rebound, a key reversal day, right above the OPEC cut production day low. This is a key level and has shown that there are buyers stepping in to absorb supply.
We can expect a rapid rally, out off the lows, with strong continuation for a long time.
I'll enter if we gap up, or if we make new daily highs at the open, averaging in on the next few days to accumulate a long term long position.

Best of luck if you follow me here.

Ivan Labrie.

Disclaimer: I'm long $OXY, $PBR, $TSLA, $GM, $INTC, and soon oil futures , and other correlated instruments and derivatives.
Bình luận: It appears like we nailed this one so far - $USOIL chart
Bình luận: That WAS the bottom in oil...watch it by the 25th!
Bình luận: Hodl!
Bình luận: We are right at the mode here, if higher, this could start trending up, big time.
Bình luận: 49.87 is the top of the previous OPEC cut day, a bit higher than today's high.
I wouldn't mind adding on dips, or just closing here and buying back on dips.
Debating on it, currently...I don't have an emotional input of my own, currently.
Bình luận:

You can close or hedge here for now.
Bình luận: I closed and bought back lower.

Holding now. If we hold here and grind higher we can get a monthly rally after next month.
Bình luận: Holding at support after a selloff. The OPEC extension day serves as a reference point, together with the older levels and the monthly uptrend mode support.
The monthly can kick into an uptrend very soon, the activity in China is particularly interesting, and also the action in other commodities. All suggest a softer dollar and lower rates for longer...
@IvanLabrie Fundamentals are positive and if you conclude OPEC's meeting on 25 May i am long from here.Very good ridk/reward ratio...i am looking 53$-55$ area for first targets.
+1 Phản hồi
IvanLabrie As_Is_Here
@As_Is_Here, indeed!
Good luck.
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mnmanstein As_Is_Here
@As_Is_Here, I agree. I think $53-$55 before the OPEC meeting, and if OPEC continues with the production cut, then I would think we would hit $60+ by mid June at the latest, although, my guess is that the $61-$62 area will be another tough nut to crack.
+2 Phản hồi
Any thoughts on URA to play OIL rebound?
Phản hồi
@Notyour, I don't have any insights on uranium. It's been a very volatile ETF.
I prefer correlated companies to commodities...or ETFs like $EEM, $XLE.
Phản hồi
Hello Ivan, I am already long since 44.77. After 3 weekly red candles, I expect 3 green candles which could take us to the 61 zone and do at the same time an outside month up.
Then, 1 red weekly candles and 8 weekly green candles or 2 solid monthly candles, all the way to 86/87 zone (50% fibo of 2008/2016 retracement).
Phản hồi
@Kudeta, great. Yes I think we have good odds.
Best of luck and thanks for stopping by.
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@Kudeta, Hi kudeta can you please post a chart of what your seeing? Would love to see how you got to that and if you can explain it all in your chart, would love to learn from you what your seeing. That would be awesome if you could take the time to do that.
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