In this chart I graph the linear regression channels that correspond to each leg in this trend. The trend is mostly up, and it's likely that we're seeing the start of the next major uptrend leg here, since we have found huge buying when retesting the bottom of the long term linear regression channel. Technicals are bullish, without even factoring the fundamentals.
The yearly SMA matched this spot, as well as the lowest volume level since the bottom in oil, which is a really strong support, so bearish thesis had to be discarded. Factoring in global demand vs the production cut, the dynamics of supply and demand confirm this idea, and we have strong arguments for holding longs. Additionally, range movement, Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and sentiment analysis tool, shows that we had 2-2.3 point drops in RgMov on each correction in the uptrend, and that's what happened here, so, the sentiment declined enough to form a bottom.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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If we hit this level by December 5th, this will confirm the short term momentum. Don't get in the way of it, if it does that.
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One more day to confirm daily momentum hitting 53.64. Short term charts are very bullish.
if we get stopped out, I'll reenter. I don't want to see today's bar turn down for the day, before the close really. It would imply we fail to confirm momentum, maybe we stay sideways, maybe we see a turn, either way, we will be able to rebuy on dips, or a different setup if stopped out. If not stopped, we'll continue marching higher, and as a bonus, with twice the size.
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-my long term oil long vehicle is OXY shares- Those I can easily hedge with options and profit from declines, while adding on dips etc.
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Tere are rumors of an OPEC and NOPEC meeting next Monday, let's keep a eye on it.
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There*
Giao dịch được đóng thủ công
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I'll exit here and reenter lower if viable, or on a different short term setup.
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Testing the first hurdle on the downside, top of the OPEC production cut day. If we close below, and see daily highs below, we'll go lower. The zone to watch is the top of the cut announcement day, and the mid point of the production cut day. s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/8/8vqJCKbQ.png
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Note how we failed to maintain the uptrend pace, and now we even broke out of the channel. Next stop: 47.54 if it doesn't turn up for the day today.
Just as a coment again, the price of 65 /bbl is when most of the shale oil wells are being re-entered because the production is becoming profitable. Which might be coherent with that graph.
IvanLabrie
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@HeityGloria, hi Gloria. Thanks for your comments as usual. Yes, that's a good point to consider. The technical target is that, merely technical. We'll have to see if the 2nd target is hit, lower probability, so I'll close 50-75% at the first one probably. Meanwhile, I'll trade UCO in the short term. Buying daily swings. no shorts.
Did you manage to enter longs?
HeityGloria
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@IvanLabrie, no, unfortunatelly I missed that...I still have my doubts about oil, but hope your forecast is solid.
@IvanLabrie, I will monitor it for that opportunity. Thank you!
JRFreeze
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Hey, is this a little uptrend on the 1 hour or are we just brushing our nose up to the resistance to then drop right back down again.. Currently at 52.11. Looking to enter a long..
IvanLabrie
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@RJHumphries, Late, very. Better stand aside for now.
JRFreeze
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@IvanLabrie, yes that's what i was thinking. Had a great ride up from 46. Definitely a time to kick back and not get too eager!
IvanLabrie
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@RJHumphries, we can easily buy back in when safe...for now I'll wait.