chartwatchers
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OIL - Patience

TVC:USOIL   CFDs Dầu thô WTI
We are very close to the breakdown.I would like to remind you how much patience was needed for oil's last ICL trade.
You needed the patience to wait while the flowers were growing from the stone here:


... and we were waiting and it suddenly dropped:



.. and we were waiting for the next short opportunity:



...and we shorted again:



... added shorts to the position:



Though we entered too early into the long position:



... almost noone believed what was coming :



Even I underestimated oil last summer. I predicted 60$ and it hit almost 65$... But right now we are at the end of this cycle. It's the topping phase again.
So we are waiting. Again.
Why one need to be in a short position? Because the first day when it drops is going to be a 5-7% down day. After a drop like that you will be psychologically destroyed and have no idea where to enter. If you enter after a 6% drop price will immediately reverse and rally 4-5% next day. If you don't enter it will drop 3% again next day. And you will be kicking yourself. So I suggest to have the short position what you can hold even if it pops 1-2$ more and it will drop one day.
Reason for a drop:
-The intermediate cycle is extremely long. One of the longest I have ever seen.
-It rallied hard for 6 months(!). So believe me it will drop hard as one of the big players will start to take profit on the longs. One starts the rest will follow.
- Commercials are short. Not just they : their wife , son , daughter , dog , cat. So everybody and his dog is short at the commercials. And they are adding to the shorts week after week.

Indicators:
Though there is no candlestick pattern yet - don't be surprised and don't stop out if we have a higher high one morning in the next days: that is going to turn down by the close printing a key reversal, or a shooting star- the indicators are turning down:
TSI gave in the early signal
RSI just left the overbought territory
MACD also crossing over

We are just crawling on the 10 EMA . The break below the 10 EMA will sign that the move into the ICL is starting.
I think the first day will be a fast move. When we break below it (50EMA) it will drop down to the 50 EMA at 59.45$.
The next level will be the breakout level and the 100 SMA at 54-55. From that point we have to be cautious.
THere is a decent chance that we drop to the 200 SMA but it will depend on what's happening at the stock market at that time. If we are starting to print a crypto-like-parabolic-rally then I will not risk the shorts in oil -0.48% because in the euphoria oil stocks will rally along with oil .

I think the drop will stop somewhere between 50-54. And will not go below 45,5$.

So all we have to do is to wait now. The drop will come.




Bình luận:
Bình luận: 1. Tag of 50 EMA completed.
2. Almost tagged the 100 SMA
3. The next I'm waiting for is the break of 54.74$.

Lock some profits on the way down at these important levels: 100 SMA, 54,74$ and 200 SMA. I closed 25% today. I will close 50% at 54.74 and try to ride the drop to the 200 SMA with 25%.
Bình luận:
Bình luận: Show must go on...
Today we had the chance to bounce after yesterday's inverted hammer.
But price just broke below yesterday's low negating the candlestick pattern.
I think the RSI oversold zigzag scenario is coming what is typical for OIL's intermediate correction. Soon the 100 SMA will be tested again and this time it will break. The next important level is between 54.74-56$.
I will close 25% again between 55-56$.
Bình luận: RSI has arrived to overbought territory.
It should be topping here, but if you have money to invest I suggest to buy nasdaq or S&P index.
Bình luận:
Bình luận: Buy QQQ or the3x leveraged TQQQ. Or just buy the NAS100usd etf or SPX500USD etf
Bình luận: If price stays below 63.20 by the close Im going to sell the closed 25% again.
Bình luận: After yesterday’s red candle we have the follow through. Barring a complete reversal of today’s candle I will sell the 25% again an hour before today’s close
Bình luận:
Bình luận:
Giao dịch được đóng thủ công: if I was holding the shorts here I would defintely close here.
Bình luận: I hope I have time tonight some time to post the new oil idea I just want to share I’m buying here.
Bình luận: I’m looking forward to see a back test of the breakdown and a lower low later in 2019.
Bình luận: If this reversal holds into the close I will post a new oil long idea.
Bình luận: We might have printed the low today.
Bình luận: The line in the sand is 43$.
Though I think we bottomed - maybe a few more days in this volatility coil - and a bounce is coming : I still think in 2019 March we will test or marginally break the multi year resistance at 43$. That will be oil's next multi year low before the rally starts again above 70$.
I sold it at 53,4. I am waiting for the new entry now. In my opinion it will be once the gap is filled. After that it depends pf OPECmeeting. I am
execting that the gap will be filled today or at latest tomorrow. What do you guys think?
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bertcoin Fullmoon
@Fullmoon, I got out once in the green as well. Will look for a better entry point near $45 or as it plays out....
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Fullmoon bertcoin
@bertcoin, Do think that positive news about production cut could lift the oil up before hitting 45?
Phản hồi
I've resigned myself to a $45 low (fib + support structure) and hedged a little against my longs as insurance.... We're so close I can taste it though.
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Fullmoon bertcoin
@bertcoin, do you think that we had the low today?
Phản hồi
bertcoin Fullmoon
@Fullmoon, LOL. I don't find the bottoms well. Not disciplined enough. If I had waited for Arpi and other good teachers, I'd be in much better shape. My posts are a mix between a fantasy that I dollar cost averaged into the bottom well and a confession of my ignorance. My hunch is with the steep trend, we need a little more bottoming action here before going up.
Phản hồi
Bought a 2nd round of UWT having watched the first get a haircut. The early Bert gets burned as usual. Record ETF volume last week and a zone of demand. Planning a third if needed will be around $45 (.618 from Feb '16 low).
Phản hồi
I'm buying the first truanch of UWT here. Significant divergence with RSI(7). Crude (WTI) is above support so may have another lower low to go.....
Phản hồi
Fullmoon bertcoin
@bertcoin, I will wait till 52 and go long.
Phản hồi
Fullmoon bertcoin
@bertcoin, I go long now at 50,4. I think it will hold and not go lower before reaching 56$.
Phản hồi
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