(a) if Oil was really so much in demand (or short supply)-- why would leaders like Putin have to step in and make efforts to cartelise the markets. (Only if the oil producing nations understood that cartelization is a crime against humanity and hence most of these Oil producing nations are anyways being punished by civil unrest)
(b) why would Aramco want to hive off their shares?
(c) Oil is one of the most polluting fossil fuel and is being phased out. The speed of phasing out has only hastened owing to false high pricing. It is estimated by within next 20 years, Oil will be used for production of greases for lubrication and not for meeting energy reqmts.
(d) if the Exchanges where Oil is traded were to impose 100% margin and insist only on physical delivery, Oil would not find takers above $20.
(e) Fundamentals eventually take over the charts. Charts only represent history and history does not mean, it will also be repeated in future. (You will not live in caves like our anchestors lived or you will not ride on horses for a short or long journey today..)
Be careful if you want to go Long or advise others to go long.