WTI retests resistance second time.Go short whenever you have a valid confirmation,according to your own strategy
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WTI Crude Oil Prices Weekly Outlook December 12-16 ''Saturday’s meeting was another win for OPEC as the cartel struck a deal with non-OPEC oil producing countries to limit output. The current deal combined with the previous will limit output by a total of nearly 2% of the global oil supply. The agreement removes 558,000 barrels a day of crude oil in addition to the 1.2 million barrels agreed to in the OPEC meeting on November 30.
There is potential for a gap higher in the weekly open as a result of the developments of the meeting, and a break of 2016 resistance stands to trigger a strong technical bullish continuation signal for WTI crude oil prices.''economiccalendar.com
hello, for go short with opec it will be no problem ?
korrium
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@GregoryCee, do not know,yet,we just have to wait to see how it plays,but the chart looks bearish.
NYNick
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@korrium, the chart does look bearish until the resistance is blown away, but with the following facts there is a big chance for the set up like this.
the facts are:
- Cut of 600K was expected – actual cut by non-OPEC 558K
Out of this:
- Mexico – would not cut, but would allow natural decline of their fields production (!)
- Kazakhstan is to cut 20K, however – there is an expected 160K increase in production this year – no real statement on this one (my point - no one would hold a new field production and development, until the project would recover the investment)
- OPEC’s quota 33.5 bpd this year is actually at 33.7-34.6 mbd (different sources), and - increasing production all the way through negotiation, together with Russia
- From non-OPEC neither Canada, US or China were in the negotiation, and the US alone is projected to increase production by 150K bpd by Q4/17 (no Trump restrictions lift to shale yet incorporated)
- Rig count on the rise (+27 for the US this week alone)
- World oil demand growth for 2016 was adjusted down slightly by 10 tb/d from the previous month’s report to stand at 1.23 mb/d, averaging 94.40 mb/d. For 2017, growth is expected to be around 1.15 mb/d (slower demand growth)
- Demand for OPEC crude in Q1-2017 is projected at 31.58 mbd (with OPEC at 32.5 the glut would continue regardless)
My conclusion is besides all the fuss and emotions around the somewhat a deal - fundamentals are still bearish even with the promises – therefore – “Buy on expectations and sell on the news” should work on Monday