Italian referendum - News breakdown

FX:XAUUSD   Vàng / Đô la Mỹ
In this chart I show you the key events and times of occurrence ahead of the news today.
The US futures market will probably open with a gap due to opening after the polls come out, but there will be plenty of time to await the official results, so, the market might remain volatile and directionless before the results are out.

I'd reccomend you keep risk small if trading into this event, either keeping positions small, or using very wide stops, since any gap through your stop could prove to be disastrous if levered, like has happened in the past, too many times this year...(think GBP flash crash, 'The Trumpening', Brexit...).
I think we'll see a risk off rally, but I'm not entirely sure US equities will be impacted negatively (despite what many people think).

Good luck today,
Ivan Labrie.
Bình luận: (I had to repost this one, it had a typo, and I decided to include a few more important charts for reference)
Bình luận: Big momentum to the downside but for now the Euro is stuck at support.

I'm monitoring, but flat currencies. Only in Bitcoin, metals, equities, oil at the moment.

Bình luận:

For reference, the level here is quite significant, so I doubt we see a new low under the thick green dashed line. That's the low of the previous uptrend start, which happened during an ECB conference.
Bình luận: This is a good way of explaining it:

"The referendum gives voters a say on a package of electoral reforms which the Prime Minister says should help shake up Italy's gridlocked system of government.

Currently the two houses of parliament have exactly equal powers, so little can happen when they are in disagreement. Mr Renzi wants to reduce the size and power of the senate to remove this barrier to his economic reforms.

He also wants the senate to be made up of officials such as local politicians from across the country, rather than directly elected.
Mr Renzi also wants to take power back from some Italian regional governments.

It is not straightforward, however, resulting in a complex referendum question."

"Voters are asked to say Yes or No to this unusually lengthy question: "Do you approve the text of the constitutional law regarding 'provisions to overcome equal bicameralism, reducing the number of MPs, the containment of operating costs of the institutions, the elimination of the CNEL and the revision of Title V of Part II of the Constitution' approved by Parliament and published in the Official Gazette no. 88 of 15 April 2016?""

So, making any kind of conjectureon direction, based on this vote is a bit problematic I think.
Bình luận: One thing is certain, it's used as a fear mongering tool by the usual suspects and media outlets that have been shouting the end is near.
Bình luận: Ok, little time left for the results to come out, but looks like the NO camp won and Renzi already said he'll resign. Now, what does this mean for the market, right now? Seems like not a whole lot. As volatility recedes, I think we'll resume the normal course of things before the event, if anything, there's one less risk event in the table for people holding off from certain bets.
Bình luận: "One thing is certain, it's used as a fear mongering tool by the usual suspects and media outlets that have been shouting the end is near."

Good morning...risk on still viable it seems. I'm net long still, but added positions in metals and miners last week, and a couple shorts. This event is pretty trivial in the short term. Like Brexit, but more toned down in the short term.

There's time left before it can affect anything.
To such a long winded question, the answer NO will logically win.
Phản hồi
IvanLabrie NihalCassim
@NihalCassim, haha yeah! Wouldn't surprise me.
Phản hồi
NihalCassim IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, can you help us understand whether this event is good for gold or not? Pretty soon the thinking will be, Italy needs a new prime minister, some will demand elections, a separatist party could win and Italy will vote to leave the EU. This kind of thinking is it good for gold or bad? It's bad for the Euro so some will think weak euro, strong dollar...this is bad for gold. Some will think weak euro, expensive dollar buy gold? Do see these as realistic scenarios?
Phản hồi
Looking at things now.....If you held a short from 1.068 environs, would you book now, or hold till close of day candle
Phản hồi
flrtrader moorekapital
@moorekapital, It's a non-even primed to make you take your eyes off the ball.
Phản hồi
IvanLabrie flrtrader
@moorekapital, hard question, a decent short for sure. Considering potential for a retracement, I'd look to trail stops and add until I'm taken out.
Phản hồi
NO won
Phản hồi
@Notyour, hi, yes, seems like NO will win.

So, the vote implies the system will remain as it is, and that populism is en vogue.
Phản hồi
IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, some were connecting this to Italy leaving the EU, etc. I think that's a bit disparate.
Phản hồi
Notyour IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, Italy will never leave the EU. Lets cross fingers for Gold and miners ;)
+1 Phản hồi
VI Tiếng Việt
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
Trang chủ Bộ lọc cổ phiếu Bộ lọc Forex Bộ lọc Tiền điện tử Lịch kinh tế Cách thức hoạt động Tính năng Biểu đồ Quy tắc Áp dụng Người điều hành Giải pháp cho Website & Nhà môi giới Widget Thư viện Biểu đồ Chứng khoán Yêu cầu tính năng Blog & Tin tức Câu hỏi thường gặp Hỗ trợ & Wiki Twitter
Hồ sơ Tùy chỉnh Hồ sơ Tài khoản và Thanh toán Ticket Hỗ trợ của tôi Liên hệ Hỗ trợ Các ý tưởng đã đăng Người theo dõi Đang theo dõi Tin nhắn riêng Trò chuyện Đăng xuất