This correction on XAUUSD has played out exactly as expected so far and it appears that we have just completed a terminal wave-c, meaning that we are also at the end of a larger irregular failure flat pattern. The irregular failure flat implies that we should get an impulsive wave that is at least 1.618 of the first :5, and could be much longer. I am expecting 2.618 which means XAUUSD would return to about 1800 within the next few months. The terminal and flat aren't fully confirmed yet and this count is still pretty speculative, however, there is also a with very nice ratios and momentum divergences that are signaling a bottom here, coupled with divergent bars and a strong retracement off the bottom I think that there is a very good chance that we are at or very near the bottom.
The stock market is also looking extremely toppish, which would be perfect timing for XAUUSD to start going back up because they generally move in opposites and the end of wave-3 (and most of the momentum) was around the same time that the stock market bottomed out in February.
This trade has a very tight stop loss and the risk to reward here is absolutely terrific. If the stop does get triggered, however, it does not necessarily invalidate the count unless it ends up moving completely outside of the parameters of the terminal impulse. Until we break the 2-4 on the terminal and the 0-B on the flat (within the required time limits) the count is still unconfirmed, however it's definitely possible that this is the end based on the lower time frame count and on the other considerations.
The strength and power of this retracement so far definitely appears to be an indication that this is beginning to resolve this terminal impulse. It managed to stretch to the very limits of the terminal impulse but it is still a valid count and if this retracement continues with the strength that it has it will be confirmed shortly.
The 2-4 trendline has been breached very quickly. This doesn't really matter that much for a terminal impulse, though, because it has to retrace the entire terminal in less than 50% of the time covered by the terminal. So as long as we breach 1300 before June 20th we should be cleared for going to at least 1776 within the next couple months.
Looks like XAUUSD has completed stage 2 confirmation of the Terminal Impulse. This means that it is very likely that my count is right and that we are about to get a very big leg up from here.
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I really appreciate if you find the time to answer.
P.S. because of our previous exchange, i bought DRV, sitting on 35% gains still holding though!
Also very nice gains on DRV, I would consider selling though, because it seems like housing could follow the DOW and advance significantly before we get a much much large collapse like what is about to come to Europe, Japan, and China.