XAU/USD 1H Timeframe Analysis: September 26, 2024
Key Elements in the Analysis
Wyckoff Distribution: The chart follows a Wyckoff Distribution schematic, with clear delineation between Phase A, Phase B, and Phase C.
Elliot Wave Count: Multiple wave structures are mapped, detailing the various impulse and corrective waves (labelled from (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v)).
Volume Profile: The Volume Profile on the left indicates key areas where significant trading volume occurred, helping to define areas of support and resistance.
Support and Resistance Lines: Clear support and resistance levels are plotted based on the Wyckoff phases and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: Multiple Fibonacci levels (0.618, 0.786, 0.382) are used to highlight critical retracement zones that could act as potential reversal areas.
Points of Control (POC): The Point of Control is marked at 2,628.465, showing where the most volume has been traded, and likely representing a significant price magnet or resistance zone.
Value Area Low (VAL): 2,582.223 and below marks the Value Area Low (VAL), a region where price might find support after a possible bearish move.
Phase Breakdown in Wyckoff Distribution
Phase A: Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), Secondary Test (ST)
In Phase A, we observe the Buying Climax (BC), where an uptrend reaches exhaustion due to significant supply entering the market.
The Automatic Reaction (AR) follows, which establishes a temporary support level after a sell-off.
The Secondary Test (ST) revisits the high but fails to breach it, confirming the climax and potential distribution.
Phase B: Sign of Weakness (SOW), Upthrust (UT), Last Point of Supply (LPSY)
In Phase B, the Upthrust (UT) in the distribution shows a final push to test higher prices, but supply overwhelms demand. This leads to a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as prices fail to hold above key levels.
The chart indicates we are nearing the completion of Phase B, with a significant downtrend likely once the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) forms.
Phase C: Expected Breakdown
Phase C is where the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) completes, and a sharp move lower is anticipated. This phase will likely mark a sustained downtrend that aligns with the broader bearish structure.
Fibonacci retracement levels such as the 0.618 (2,655.746) and 0.786 (2,663.162) levels may serve as resistance, capping any retracements before continuing lower.
Elliot Wave Count and Structure
Primary Wave Count:
The chart identifies an ongoing corrective Elliot Wave structure within the Wyckoff schematic. The most recent (v) wave of the corrective structure is nearing completion within Phase B, suggesting a potential price reversal.
Following this, we expect the start of a new impulsive decline, which would be classified as Wave (3) of the broader wave structure.
Expected Price Movements:
Currently, we observe the potential formation of Wave (1) of 3, signaling that the market is gearing up for the third wave of the downtrend.
Wave (2) is expected to offer a retracement up to the 2,650.527 or 2,655.746 regions (Fibonacci 0.618 zone), followed by the larger Wave (3), which will likely push prices below the Value Area Low (VAL), down to around 2,581.372.
Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Zone:
2,655.746 (0.618 Fibonacci level)
2,663.162 (0.786 Fibonacci level)
Support Levels:
2,628.465 (POC) – Initial support that may temporarily halt the decline.
2,582.223 (VAL) – Critical support zone, a break below this could trigger further downside.
Volume Profile Insights
The Volume Profile shows a large concentration of trades around the 2,600 region, particularly at 2,628.465. This suggests a heavy accumulation and distribution zone, meaning price could consolidate here before making a decisive move down.
The thin zones in the Volume Profile indicate low liquidity areas, and the price is likely to move quickly through these levels.
Expectations for the Next Two Weeks
Initial Upside Retracement: Given the Elliot Wave structure and Fibonacci resistance, gold may initially retrace to 2,650-2,655. However, this move will likely be corrective and capped by the Fibonacci 0.618 or 0.786 levels.
Significant Downside Potential: Once the corrective retracement completes, a sharp decline is expected as Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution plays out. This will likely lead to a test of the POC (2,628), followed by a deeper move to 2,582.223 (VAL).
Bearish Target: The long-term target for the next two weeks is potentially around the 2,590-2,550 region, which aligns with the end of Wave (3) in the Elliot Wave structure and a complete breakdown in Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution.
Conclusion
In summary, XAU/USD is poised for a near-term retracement toward the 2,655-2,663 region, followed by a significant bearish move. This move aligns with both the Wyckoff Distribution pattern and the completion of Wave 2 in the Elliot Wave structure, with the price potentially dropping below the 2,582 level in the coming weeks. Key support and resistance levels, combined with Fibonacci retracement zones and Volume Profile analysis, will serve as pivotal points for the upcoming moves.
Wyckoff Distribution: The chart follows a Wyckoff Distribution schematic, with clear delineation between Phase A, Phase B, and Phase C.
Elliot Wave Count: Multiple wave structures are mapped, detailing the various impulse and corrective waves (labelled from (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v)).
Volume Profile: The Volume Profile on the left indicates key areas where significant trading volume occurred, helping to define areas of support and resistance.
Support and Resistance Lines: Clear support and resistance levels are plotted based on the Wyckoff phases and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: Multiple Fibonacci levels (0.618, 0.786, 0.382) are used to highlight critical retracement zones that could act as potential reversal areas.
Points of Control (POC): The Point of Control is marked at 2,628.465, showing where the most volume has been traded, and likely representing a significant price magnet or resistance zone.
Value Area Low (VAL): 2,582.223 and below marks the Value Area Low (VAL), a region where price might find support after a possible bearish move.
Phase Breakdown in Wyckoff Distribution
Phase A: Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), Secondary Test (ST)
In Phase A, we observe the Buying Climax (BC), where an uptrend reaches exhaustion due to significant supply entering the market.
The Automatic Reaction (AR) follows, which establishes a temporary support level after a sell-off.
The Secondary Test (ST) revisits the high but fails to breach it, confirming the climax and potential distribution.
Phase B: Sign of Weakness (SOW), Upthrust (UT), Last Point of Supply (LPSY)
In Phase B, the Upthrust (UT) in the distribution shows a final push to test higher prices, but supply overwhelms demand. This leads to a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as prices fail to hold above key levels.
The chart indicates we are nearing the completion of Phase B, with a significant downtrend likely once the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) forms.
Phase C: Expected Breakdown
Phase C is where the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) completes, and a sharp move lower is anticipated. This phase will likely mark a sustained downtrend that aligns with the broader bearish structure.
Fibonacci retracement levels such as the 0.618 (2,655.746) and 0.786 (2,663.162) levels may serve as resistance, capping any retracements before continuing lower.
Elliot Wave Count and Structure
Primary Wave Count:
The chart identifies an ongoing corrective Elliot Wave structure within the Wyckoff schematic. The most recent (v) wave of the corrective structure is nearing completion within Phase B, suggesting a potential price reversal.
Following this, we expect the start of a new impulsive decline, which would be classified as Wave (3) of the broader wave structure.
Expected Price Movements:
Currently, we observe the potential formation of Wave (1) of 3, signaling that the market is gearing up for the third wave of the downtrend.
Wave (2) is expected to offer a retracement up to the 2,650.527 or 2,655.746 regions (Fibonacci 0.618 zone), followed by the larger Wave (3), which will likely push prices below the Value Area Low (VAL), down to around 2,581.372.
Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Zone:
2,655.746 (0.618 Fibonacci level)
2,663.162 (0.786 Fibonacci level)
Support Levels:
2,628.465 (POC) – Initial support that may temporarily halt the decline.
2,582.223 (VAL) – Critical support zone, a break below this could trigger further downside.
Volume Profile Insights
The Volume Profile shows a large concentration of trades around the 2,600 region, particularly at 2,628.465. This suggests a heavy accumulation and distribution zone, meaning price could consolidate here before making a decisive move down.
The thin zones in the Volume Profile indicate low liquidity areas, and the price is likely to move quickly through these levels.
Expectations for the Next Two Weeks
Initial Upside Retracement: Given the Elliot Wave structure and Fibonacci resistance, gold may initially retrace to 2,650-2,655. However, this move will likely be corrective and capped by the Fibonacci 0.618 or 0.786 levels.
Significant Downside Potential: Once the corrective retracement completes, a sharp decline is expected as Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution plays out. This will likely lead to a test of the POC (2,628), followed by a deeper move to 2,582.223 (VAL).
Bearish Target: The long-term target for the next two weeks is potentially around the 2,590-2,550 region, which aligns with the end of Wave (3) in the Elliot Wave structure and a complete breakdown in Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution.
Conclusion
In summary, XAU/USD is poised for a near-term retracement toward the 2,655-2,663 region, followed by a significant bearish move. This move aligns with both the Wyckoff Distribution pattern and the completion of Wave 2 in the Elliot Wave structure, with the price potentially dropping below the 2,582 level in the coming weeks. Key support and resistance levels, combined with Fibonacci retracement zones and Volume Profile analysis, will serve as pivotal points for the upcoming moves.
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