1 - Hit 1226.67 target and reversed - Although I'd expect consolidation to be the next time-consuming event, a 5-0 pattern is lurking above, demanding completion at its defining 50% level from recent down-swing, or at 1284.99 - High probability target.
2 - Prop Pattern may receive validation as well, pending target reach at TG-1 = 1301 (moderate probability)
3 - Low probability target rests at 1321.71
OVERALL:
The initial analysis called for a reversal at a higher level based on a Shark. This secondary target allowed that same Shark to extend its BC leg to complete on a predictive/forecasting model that defined a slightly lower potential reversal mark than would be defined by target alone.
Expected rally is now driven by target completion of Shark's acolyte: The 5-0 Pattern, although loftier targets remain from a prior analysis that say a Wolfe Wave as the main driver of a deeper reversal. While 5-0 may gain validation, these higher targets remain valid as defined by predictive/forecasting model.
However, in the context of a trend preservation, these loftier targets should also be considered as strong bearish entrenchments, likely to cap any further advance. Indeed, predictive/forecasting model remains strongly bearish across short and medium terms.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
There is no directional change in the large timeframes (H4 and daily), of late.
In the following DAILY chart, price hit the target dead-on and has since reversed. The underlying geometry is very permissive, meaning that it would not always require that Point-5 be hit. although it was my expectation all along that it would hit it off of the 1-3-5 geometric side, and even strain the market a bit more towards a 5-prime level.
Instead, price reversed so far, in a way not so dissimilar from an Elliott Wave Flat (so far).
In the H4 chart below, price shows that it stalled at a corresponding structural level, within a range that defined a prior Elliott Wave lesser-degree Point-3. However, I expect that a higher level of attainment remain in the work, simply on the expectation that a dominant bearish trendline remains unanswered as of this market close interval. Such attainment would also allow price to test, but not surpass the upper range defining a slight territory above that descending trendline, an event which, if allowing price to reverse from there, would likely signal a resumption to lower lows.
If instead price were allowed to break across AND close across that bearish trendline, then it would require the trader to wait patiently for a higher high to develop, indicative of a persistent advance to higher highs. This is simple structural analysis without much bells and whistles, representing a set of observation that should help outline the shape of things to come in terms of directional intent:
Price hit the nominal "TG-Lo = 1134.65 - 24 OCT 2014" target, and rolled back up since then. On a daily chart, this price reaction is not substantive enough to call it a retracement, and much less a reversal. However, at the H4 level, price showed a significant reaction, in the order that should prompt the trader to consider both sides of directional options. Given the simple structural definitions, in terms of range/levels, this should provide a first-look potential into the underlying intention of the market.
The one thing to remember here is that the underlying geometry is that of a Wolfe Waves pattern. While we may want to focus on internal price action as it related to Elliott Waves approaches, the geometric pattern has its own set of demands, such as possibly requiring a true Point-5 completion (off of the 1-3 Line, which has remained unanswered still now), or a Point 5' ("five prime") validation of the 2-4 Line projected off of Point-3, or even a Point-5" ("five second") validation of the same 2-4 Line projected off of Point-1. Any of these events would occur if and once price returns from its current high. Therefore, all eyes should be on the chemistry that will occur between the friction of a reactive bullish ascent against a longer-term bearish trendline.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Sokun
⋅
Most fascinating !
4xForecaster
⋅
23 OCT 2014 - Update:
It appears that Elliott Wave's Wave-4 has completed.
Expect this decline to complete into an impulsive form:
David Alcindor
ZarNegar
⋅
You're very hopeful.
To the highest level in 1257. And above it is not possible
I have learned to let things that do better and know better than me to make the call for me - So, I post what comes out of the predictive/forecasting model with no fear, hope or greed. Simple trust in an algo that has been more right than wrong, proved me more wrong than I could ever be right.
Just sticking to a system that has years of documented Dead-On Hits (some older archives for our leisurely review for calls made for which I was called more worse than hopeful: bitly.com/bundles/dalcindo/j)
David Alcindor
ZarNegar
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Thanks to David Alcindor
I visited the site and was very useful Bitly.
I hope to contact you in the future. And I take advantage of your experiences.
Thanks again
nezyrinfx
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in your previous gold post, u stated 1240. now u saying target hit? i dont see 1226 as your target before
4xForecaster
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Please, be sure to stay tuned to the frequent analyses.
Here are the two sources of the target signal, released on 12 SEP 2014:
Following is the last picture ever posted before price hit price. Notice how the entire analysis was initially based on the Shark's 1.131, and how instead, the predictive/forecasting model was not only able to call a few points lower, but got it dead-on:
Is this answering your query?
David Alcindor
manijeh.kazemi.33
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thanks for your analysis david
4xForecaster
⋅
07 NOV 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
----------
XAUUSD nears bearish resistance; Rallying > 1189.69 unlikely; If occurred, signals reversal:
Traders,
There is no directional change in the large timeframes (H4 and daily), of late.
In the following DAILY chart, price hit the target dead-on and has since reversed. The underlying geometry is very permissive, meaning that it would not always require that Point-5 be hit. although it was my expectation all along that it would hit it off of the 1-3-5 geometric side, and even strain the market a bit more towards a 5-prime level.
Instead, price reversed so far, in a way not so dissimilar from an Elliott Wave Flat (so far).
XAUUSD - Daily Chart:
In the H4 chart below, price shows that it stalled at a corresponding structural level, within a range that defined a prior Elliott Wave lesser-degree Point-3. However, I expect that a higher level of attainment remain in the work, simply on the expectation that a dominant bearish trendline remains unanswered as of this market close interval. Such attainment would also allow price to test, but not surpass the upper range defining a slight territory above that descending trendline, an event which, if allowing price to reverse from there, would likely signal a resumption to lower lows.
If instead price were allowed to break across AND close across that bearish trendline, then it would require the trader to wait patiently for a higher high to develop, indicative of a persistent advance to higher highs. This is simple structural analysis without much bells and whistles, representing a set of observation that should help outline the shape of things to come in terms of directional intent:
XAUUSD - H4Chart:
OVERALL:
Price hit the nominal "TG-Lo = 1134.65 - 24 OCT 2014" target, and rolled back up since then. On a daily chart, this price reaction is not substantive enough to call it a retracement, and much less a reversal. However, at the H4 level, price showed a significant reaction, in the order that should prompt the trader to consider both sides of directional options. Given the simple structural definitions, in terms of range/levels, this should provide a first-look potential into the underlying intention of the market.
The one thing to remember here is that the underlying geometry is that of a Wolfe Waves pattern. While we may want to focus on internal price action as it related to Elliott Waves approaches, the geometric pattern has its own set of demands, such as possibly requiring a true Point-5 completion (off of the 1-3 Line, which has remained unanswered still now), or a Point 5' ("five prime") validation of the 2-4 Line projected off of Point-3, or even a Point-5" ("five second") validation of the same 2-4 Line projected off of Point-1. Any of these events would occur if and once price returns from its current high. Therefore, all eyes should be on the chemistry that will occur between the friction of a reactive bullish ascent against a longer-term bearish trendline.
Cheers,
David Alcindor