Many people will think this post is insanity, but I'm simply revisiting, and zooming on a very interesting setup I had detected some time ago. This is a ratio chart of the S&P500 index compared to Gold. The risk off sentiment is reaching a very vivid extreme here, and like anything else, it trends with Time at Mode concepts. I'm interested in monitoring it since we're very close to a projected target for it, and also, close to the time expiration of the last uptrend signal.
If we see a drastic turn once either (or both) targets are hit (time/price), we might be able to capture a great long term entry in this ratio.
Refer to related ideas for the monthly view.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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Two days left, target not hit yet.
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Nice turn so far.
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Target hit, one day left.
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Right on the last day, we see a turn...I think this is it.
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A break under yesterday's low would seal the deal.
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Let's see how this one progresses. I hope people managed to catch the trade, the idea was to buy S&P500 and sell Gold, or buy S&P500 with gold if you had longs. Currently a profitable trade. (same as buying oil with gold, which I did take myself)
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Two new lows...the deal is sealed.
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Anyone took this pair trade or the oil/gold one?
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This and oil/gold are acting great as pair trades. Not a bad idea to hold the pair setups. I'm flat atm, on those, but I am in correlated trades.
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Trendline about to break down.
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Trendline held for now.
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Trendline finally crossed...now if we close below it, this is a big deal!
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Closed below, now retesting, pay attention, gold might be a short.
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Time to monitor this ratio closely. I suspect the market is turning down here, if you trace a trendline you might get some timely warnings here.
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This ratio keeps telling you when to long gold...now is the time.
no just following the chart and the results is good I must say
dingying85
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it looks like gold wants down and stocks and oil wants up?
IvanLabrie
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Yes, I haven't found anything readable about gold miner stocks, probably late to get in on those.
Sorry.
dingying85
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this trade you suggested is really cool, do you have any sell signal for gold now? or still playing the pair trade?
IvanLabrie
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I'm flat gold at the moment.
Good time to collect profits from long stocks and short gold.
Gold can rally a bit more here, actually, we have a long signal.
IvanLabrie
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This is valid for 1 day.
dingying85
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wow, your model are so cool, gold indeed breakout today, should I chase the high here or wait? Thanks.
IvanLabrie
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A retracement nto this green box is a good buy, stop loss at 1240.
dingying85
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Gold looks good, do you think GDX and GDXJ looks better?
IvanLabrie
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Did you take that one?
I don't follow those instruments really, would take me a considerable amount of time to elaborate a forecast.
I prefer silver right now.