The YEARLY TREND of XAUUSD or Gold is still in an uptrend from a massive, 17 year mode at the $395-$398 zone. The 26-year sideways period from 1979-2004 had 17 years at a $3 price level between $395.3 and $398.3, which is a remarkably long time for a market to stay at one price.
Once a market gets moving out of a range like that it tends to go for 17 years in total. That first year was 2005, so that makes 2017 the 13th year of the 17-year uptrend.
The other interesting part is that the price range of the consolidation as measured from low to high was $633 or 292%. When adding $292% to the mode of $395.3, you get a target of $1530, which has been surpassed already, but oddly the $1527 level was the "HIGHEST YEARLY LOW" which happened in the year 2012.
I would also add that Gold has formed a new 6-year mode from $1226 to $1178, so anytime Gold is above $1226 it can extend gains and move back towards the highs above $1527.
The best way to trade long term uptrends is to buy when shorter term trends turn down and then exhaust themselves. Which means, essentially, that you jump back into the long term uptrend when short term selling occurs to push the price down temporarily which provides a low risk entry point.
Stay tuned - and next look at the "MONTHLY TREND" and then the "WEEKLY TREND" and the "DAILY TREND".
We often cover these in the Key Hidden Levels chat room since Gold is such an important market to everyone in the world.
PS - I'm putting a "Long" on this chart because the Gold UPTREND is still in tact and in control.
Tim
April 29, 2017 2:41PM EST
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I didn't realize I had my fundamental indicators on this chart. Here it is without those.
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And here is a chart of the Gold Mining Shares from the Key Hidden Levels Chat Room that I posted on Friday (Yesterday) 4/28/2017
You can see that the trends are down, but exhausted. Overall though, the market is in a holding pattern (triangle) where there are trends both up and down at the same time.
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The move out of the recent mode (where the yellow range-expansion triangles start from) reached the measured move and are attempting a bounce here.
Stay tuned.
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The last "weekly uptrend" failed. So I show you here what the market SHOULD DO after a failure. It should drop by an amount EQUAL TO the failed rally. Let's see what it does...
Maybe I understood wrong, but do your last two comments conflict to each other? Last comment means today's rally is bull trap?
A-shot
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"Which means, essentially, that you jump back into the long term uptrend when short term selling occurs to push the price down temporarily which provides a low risk entry point." isn't now one of those times?
timwest
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@2use, Yes. Exactly.
A-shot
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This is a great coverage! Love it!
Manos007
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Hi Tim, Great work. Thank you so much. Do you think silver will catch up or possibly out perform gold in the years to come?
AlexHorn
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@b.Gates, If history is any guide and the technicals will hold true, the GSR is gonna drop substantially, meaning silver will outperform gold by a number of magnitudes... at least in my humble opinion (and what I definitely expect to happen ;) )
Manos007
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@AlexHorn, That's exactly what I wanted to here! Thank you. I hope we're right.