@JA.piotr.bor, As posted before 1,242 is the key line. A weekly close below will enhance the down trend. Also intermediate cycle TL there. And they have the indian currency ban story to sell. Big story though, regarding what's coming globally.
Your mark regarding next year is last year's highs, i.e. 1,308. A yearly closing below, will probably keep gold falling for the next q or even the one after. IF q closes like this we have an evening star. The only positive is for gold to close at least above 1,335 this month. Not enough chances imho but who knows, maybe. Gold is a lot popular lately. Not a good sign if you observe how many gold charts are posted lately. Must be forgotten and "dusted" a bit before takes on again.
Last, keepan eye on gold's VIX (red line). Some violent moves needed to unload short-medium term players. A break above triangle will do it. Cheers. P.
mmmp12
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@pantheo, how about adding longs from 1242-44? I want to add for some small rally to high 1270s. Possible? For now gold looks very weak due to dollar and maybe unloading positions from gov bonds...
pantheo
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@JA.piotr.bor, It depends on your R/R. In such a move I would have wait to see the reaction to the TL in a smaller timeframe - like it's happening now- and then long to the first retest in order to decrease my risk at the lowest. If 1,242 holds for the weekly, then longs can see 1,294. Miners are in the pessimistic sentiment area and maybe due to punish those are shorting the obvious NL. It depends also on the dollar move. It is currently at the minor supply zone before 100. Let's see how the week closes and maybe we get some answers. Gold must broke above MA200 again to validate the daily cycle if its bottom is this. Time wise, it fits this scenario as long as 1,242 holds.
Euro must keep 1.0880 for the week, otherwise can see to 1.0810. Take care, markets are crazy right now. Feels dangerous. Most of the charts I saw the last few hours are on the edge for a serious break. It's do or die here.
mmmp12
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@pantheo, yeah I mean like those GBP rallies especially against euro. I mean WTF? It want to rally for several weeks and can't and now - like boom it strenghthen. I know - Trump like UK, but this seems like trend changer - but for me it isn't.
pantheo
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@JA.piotr.bor, Patience. Markets will always be there. Must feel the same about our accounts. Big change coming during this month, as it is evident in all the charts that I've posted today. Big money are being repositioned due to new goverment. Not our job to participate unless a clear PA signal arises, that fits with our trading plan and our R/R strategy, under current market conditions. Stocks maybe turn down today, volatility will come back towards end of next week. Retail accounts should refrain for this big casino, unless markets show their hands first. Take care and be cool. Don't trade narratives. Trade simple, plain, price action. Cheers, P.