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Predictive Model Eyes 41.06 Support; Duo Geo's Off-Set Rule #3

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- GEO:
This represents a high-probability event, whereby two Geos have a shared 5-second point defined. As per the Geo's Off-Set Rule list, this third condition calls for a limited rally to the price level corresponding to Point-3.

- JANUS (Proprietary Pattern):
A prop pattern is lending support to a probable near-term support at the 40.07/41.06 range. This is often associated with a reversal to the levels corroborating those of the Geo's higher levels of attainment, namely along the 1-4 Line.


On its own, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an interim rallying that is likely to be limited. However, as per the Geo's overlap, a subsequent rallying of lesser probability could occur as shown in the chart.


In the most immediate timeframe, price is likely to be tethered within a low of 40.07 and a high of 57.54. If price gains bullish momentum, it should break the 59.16 roof and rally to the height defined in the chart near 85.38 at a maximum, or along the dotted blue 1-4 Line at a minimum.


Look for dashed forecast line failure for a general invalidation, although a significant break below 40.07 would cause a complete revision of this Model's based forecast.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - U. S.A.

Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: 4xForecaster

Bình luận: 19 MAR 2016 - Chart Update:

There remains a high probability for 40.07 to get hit:


David Alcindor
Bình luận: 11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains in relative tune with dashed forecast line, however, price only came short of the 41.06/40.07 forecast range in the DAILY chart:

Based on the compensatory Geo Rule, as price reached the 5'' level, then a rally to the geometry's Point-3 is expected to occur with subsequent overhead resistance (Geo's OffSet Rule #3).

If price BACA > 59.16, bullish forecast to the upside remains less probable, but a revision of the forecast would need to be done.


Price defined a Point-5'' ("point 5-second") as it moved in an adverse excursion against the Geo's 1-3-Line. This calls for a Geo's OffSet Rule #3 application, whereby price is expected to find upwards resistance at a level corresponding to Point-3's price level, namely in the vicinity of 59.16.

In Fibonacci terms, this would represent to the first of Fibonacci's core retracement value of 38.6%.


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Bình luận: 28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price just completed, then reacted to a WW/Geo at its Point-5 (GREEN), corresponding to the anticipated Geo's OffSet Rule #3, which represents the influence of a prior, larger pattern (BLUE):

In gist, the dashed line remains valid, seeing significant undulations in the current price range, as price sweeps positions and prepares for a rallying.

In terms of geometric development, look for the validation of the 1-4 Line (GREEN) - I have not used the Predictive/Forecasting Model for this interim price action, since the overall forecast remains bullish here.

However, invalidation would occur at the BACA < structure low, right below the "forecast" arrow (PURPLE).


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Bình luận: This offers a great example of the GEO's OffSet Rule #3, which I teach freely to the public (see profile).

Thank you for reminding me about this one!


David Alcindor
What is GEO's OffSet Rule #3? And what is the status of the prognosis at this point - still in tact? Thanx!
+1 Phản hồi

I now provide predictive analysis/forecasting service on my own site (see signature). There will be a lot of older charts and analyses floating around, and I appreciate the request for updates. However, updates and new chart requests will occur on the new site, where I also offer free, simple, profitable lessons - Again, see signature (not allowed to explicitly promote site, per TradingView house rule).


David Alcindor
Phản hồi
wow, since the turn at your predictive forecast this thing has been moving one way...upside!!
Phản hồi
Hi, may I ask you why you allowed wave 4 to overlap wave 2 in the downtrend?
Phản hồi
Hello, @unelma - The numeration does not refer to Elliott Wave count.

Phản hồi
David, XBI price found upwards resistance at a level corresponding to Point-3's price level, namely in the vicinity of 60 end of May. At this point in time and currently, are we heading to 40 per forecast or we're headed for a bounce near or higher than 60 in July? Would you be kind to run XBI in the forecasting model to see this better? I am in cash and want to make a move for target 40 as my chart analysis point the same. However, I don't want to get caught in a bounce if I can avoid it. Thanks very much!
+1 Phản hồi
Hello, @tfinavia - Thank you for your request on this $XBI.

I am not sure what you mean, in reference to the 3' - This point does not exist either in the Wolfe Wave, or in its refinement as the Geo. To clarify things up, I will post a chart update and technical note describing the recent developments, which remain in line with the overall forecast.

I understand that you anticipate a trading opportunity here, but my predictive analyses and forecasts are not trading advice - I recommend traders to seek advice from a license professional, and to only trade what ever percentage of their asset they can luxuriously lose.

Again, thank you for your quesry - Feel free to post the chart you might have with you, alluding to these points in your comment.


David Alcindor
Phản hồi
tfinavia 4xForecaster
Thanks David! Since it's a bearish rising wedge and price broke out downwards with confirmed close below the trendline 2-4 line, I am thinking 44 price objective on XBI could be achieved. My other reference : http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html
Thanks a lot!
Phản hồi
+1 Phản hồi
Great work and a million thanks!
+1 Phản hồi
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