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Predictive Model Eyes 41.06 Support; Duo Geo's Off-Set Rule #3

AMEX:XBI   SPDR SERIES TRUST SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SYNOPSIS:


MARGET GEOMETRIES:

- GEO:
This represents a high-probability event, whereby two Geos have a shared 5-second point defined. As per the Geo's Off-Set Rule list, this third condition calls for a limited rally to the price level corresponding to Point-3.

snapshot


- JANUS (Proprietary Pattern):
A prop pattern is lending support to a probable near-term support at the 40.07/41.06 range. This is often associated with a reversal to the levels corroborating those of the Geo's higher levels of attainment, namely along the 1-4 Line.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

On its own, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an interim rallying that is likely to be limited. However, as per the Geo's overlap, a subsequent rallying of lesser probability could occur as shown in the chart.


OVERALL:

In the most immediate timeframe, price is likely to be tethered within a low of 40.07 and a high of 57.54. If price gains bullish momentum, it should break the 59.16 roof and rally to the height defined in the chart near 85.38 at a maximum, or along the dotted blue 1-4 Line at a minimum.


INVALIDATION:

Look for dashed forecast line failure for a general invalidation, although a significant break below 40.07 would cause a complete revision of this Model's based forecast.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - U. S.A.            


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
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Bình luận: 19 MAR 2016 - Chart Update:

There remains a high probability for 40.07 to get hit:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Bình luận: 11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains in relative tune with dashed forecast line, however, price only came short of the 41.06/40.07 forecast range in the DAILY chart:
snapshot


Based on the compensatory Geo Rule, as price reached the 5'' level, then a rally to the geometry's Point-3 is expected to occur with subsequent overhead resistance (Geo's OffSet Rule #3).

If price BACA > 59.16, bullish forecast to the upside remains less probable, but a revision of the forecast would need to be done.

OVERALL:

Price defined a Point-5'' ("point 5-second") as it moved in an adverse excursion against the Geo's 1-3-Line. This calls for a Geo's OffSet Rule #3 application, whereby price is expected to find upwards resistance at a level corresponding to Point-3's price level, namely in the vicinity of 59.16.

In Fibonacci terms, this would represent to the first of Fibonacci's core retracement value of 38.6%.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Bình luận: 28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price just completed, then reacted to a WW/Geo at its Point-5 (GREEN), corresponding to the anticipated Geo's OffSet Rule #3, which represents the influence of a prior, larger pattern (BLUE):
snapshot


In gist, the dashed line remains valid, seeing significant undulations in the current price range, as price sweeps positions and prepares for a rallying.

In terms of geometric development, look for the validation of the 1-4 Line (GREEN) - I have not used the Predictive/Forecasting Model for this interim price action, since the overall forecast remains bullish here.

However, invalidation would occur at the BACA < structure low, right below the "forecast" arrow (PURPLE).

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Hi, may I ask you why you allowed wave 4 to overlap wave 2 in the downtrend?
Phản hồi
Hello, @unelma - The numeration does not refer to Elliott Wave count.

David
Phản hồi
David, XBI price found upwards resistance at a level corresponding to Point-3's price level, namely in the vicinity of 60 end of May. At this point in time and currently, are we heading to 40 per forecast or we're headed for a bounce near or higher than 60 in July? Would you be kind to run XBI in the forecasting model to see this better? I am in cash and want to make a move for target 40 as my chart analysis point the same. However, I don't want to get caught in a bounce if I can avoid it. Thanks very much!
+1 Phản hồi
Hello, @tfinavia - Thank you for your request on this $XBI.

I am not sure what you mean, in reference to the 3' - This point does not exist either in the Wolfe Wave, or in its refinement as the Geo. To clarify things up, I will post a chart update and technical note describing the recent developments, which remain in line with the overall forecast.

I understand that you anticipate a trading opportunity here, but my predictive analyses and forecasts are not trading advice - I recommend traders to seek advice from a license professional, and to only trade what ever percentage of their asset they can luxuriously lose.

Again, thank you for your quesry - Feel free to post the chart you might have with you, alluding to these points in your comment.

Best,

David Alcindor
Phản hồi
tfinavia 4xForecaster
Thanks David! Since it's a bearish rising wedge and price broke out downwards with confirmed close below the trendline 2-4 line, I am thinking 44 price objective on XBI could be achieved. My other reference : http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html
Thanks a lot!
Phản hồi
nice
+1 Phản hồi
Great work and a million thanks!
+1 Phản hồi
nice1 David. :)
+1 Phản hồi
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