Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Mô tả
⋅
The last few days, all I hear about it is bragging from traders and investors that they "bought the dip." The drop is over. That was easy. Don't sell at the bottom. Just buy! buy! buy!
It's a good plan if you are investor. At some point, I think bitcoin goes higher. But if you are trading bitcoin, its not so easy.
The move from 17k to 9k is a big move. With that kind of momentum, its not likely to be over so fast and easy. The daily chart needs to make a run, dip then make a new high above 13k. Then we can talk about a trend change. But so far, we are in a bear trend so we have to be prepared for lower prices.
Today Bitcoin was rejected at the $13,000 area. So what happens?
If Bitcoin can keep attacking 13K then it could go higher. But then I think top of the triangle trendline becomes resistance and the 61.8% fib becomes a target around $14200. But I would expect us to still test lows before going higher.
If it moves down from here, then it could hold 10k then that would give us some resolution and allow bitcoin to go back into consolidation range and potential make a higher high on the daily.
Otherwise, the possibility of going lower is still on the table.
I still believe Bitcoin is in a monthly bull market and it will end up making new highs. I just think that after a monster run 2017, its not going to be over this quickly. its healthy for the market to dump some of the speculation and get some fresh new buyers in at lower prices.
So as a trader, this 13K area is a place to take a short with a stop at $14500. Target of $7500-$8500. If we get above that $14500 area then I can consider going long.
Bình luận
⋅
Bitcoin has just chopped around in this range between 10k and 13K the last 10 days. Now its a sitting on a trendline support.
If this area doesn't hold then we revisit the 10k range and that ends up being the 4th time we visit that area. The more we test it the weaker it gets. I would be surprised if 10k holds.
If this market goes down then that 200 DMA around $7500 is an ideal spot to test. It would be healthy to go down there. Knock out all the panic sellers and pickup fresh new buyers.
Price action today has shown incredible weakness. Again, I would be surprised if it holds. If support collapses, I will be looking for $7500 to $8500 within the next 3 days. It very well could end up spiking down and recovering fast.
Bình luận
⋅
We had a 9 candle series down on the 4 hour. We should have some consolidation for another 2-8 hours and then we'll see whether the market is ready to turn. There's a trend line resistance around 10300-10400 and price resistance back up at 10700. Those would be areas to revisit before bitcoin tries to go down. If we get past that area then it seems like testing 13K is in order to see if the big descending triangle is in play.
Bình luận
⋅
Bình luận
⋅
Bình luận
⋅
We hit that 8500 area but its been a fast drop so it might consolidate from here or possibly hit that top triangle trend line before going down again. But we have multiple support areas and the 200 DMA right below us so its more likely to hit that range first before it starts a new bull market.
And of course, we could enter a long term bear market. I don't think that will happen but have to be ready for it.
At this point, we just watch and wait and see what kind of clues we get from price action.
Bình luận
⋅
We are on a panic, but right in the buy target area. It's also pritning an 8 on a TD signal on a 4 hour chart. 8 and 9 have a high likelihood of being the bottom. But that doesn't mean that it couldn't really sell off hard before it finds a low. A few chocies.
1. Buy here as a long to mid term hold and ignore any further downside. (riskiest) 2. Wait until you at least see a reversal on the 1 hour chart. Safer yet, the 4 hour chart. (safer) 3. Just sit back and wait to see exactly what happens with price action and market structure, then determine if you want to buy.
I personally do a bit of all 3. I have some buys in just because big sell offs can aggressively turn, so I want to get some positions. But I'll wait for a reversal signal to buy more
Hey @rzmb44, we strongly poked through the bottom of the ichimoku cloud and are trading under it. Isn't that a bearish sign as any?
rzmb44
⋅
@mcbw_, I don't trade on ichi but generally speaking, there are a lot of bearish signs.
Now, whether to go long depends on your view. If you are a long term investor and believe in bitcoin then BTC is on sale. Nothing wrong with going long. If you are a swing trader, going long is a mistake. Even if you end up being right.
We need to make a swing high above 12K to get a bullish daily chart. On the 4 hour chart, we need a 3rd candle to make a higher high above the 2nd candle, so thats above $10300 depending on what BTC chart you look at. That would give you a swing low on the hourly and make the chart bullish in the short term. But that just means we might test $10700 before going down.
I'd really like to see us go down. I cannot stress how important it is to touch that 200 DMA. Getting it over with would be healthy. It would set us up to make a really strong move up. But if we keep bouncing between 10k and 13K then it opens the door to bears just slowly bringing us into a slow consolidation for months. Sharp moves down act like a spring and actually work to catapult us up.
darkandblue
⋅
I think it might happen tonight depending on what asians will do
rzmb44
⋅
@retiringsoon1, Yeah. I think we'll see 9k soon. Then we might pause, but it could pick up and dump fairly quick. I have buys layered in and I'll leave some on the table to evaluate the next couple of days.
darkandblue
⋅
@rzmb44, good strategy...i was aiming for the bounce scenario and got caught but doesnt matter come march it will all be gone.
I think asia is critical cause they will wake up to see all the stop losses triggered. They can either sell off completely or they might move the price back up to a 12.5k run..