Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
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Production cost is about to double to $14,000. 70% above the current price.
Last halving, price was just 10% below Production cost, and Price & Hash Rate collapsed -20%.
Bitcoin Production Cost script just updated with the latest data: - CBECI electrical data as at 11 May 2020 - Now uses 2 week rolling data for finer granularity (while balancing TradingView load time). - Uses 4c/kWh (lower end of CBECI and Coinshares global average Mining electrical cost estimates).
Without FOMO now (large price appreciation over next week), expect a big miner capitulation: 30%+ reduction in Hash Rates.
a completely unqualified question: where is it written that the price must and will always rise after halving? everyone acts as if this was something natural, because it has already happened twice before. why can't it happen the other way round on the 3rd time?
weak ones shake out, strong ones survive and bitcoin keeps going. but price must go ip to keep miners profitable.
ReallyMe
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@mastrhiggins, I believe the reasoning "but the price has to go up to keep the miners profitable" is a bit odd. The price doesn't have to go up at all.
The price does not owe anything to anybody and will most certainly not behave the same way every time in a predictable way.
Likewise, one could naively expect and argue "but the S&P 500 must only rise now for the FED and government QE measures to have an effect". The price is not tied to it.
If the price does not go up and the miners lose money they will shut down. Then the network value goes down as will the price.
But they have invested millions into their infrastructure, it is not in their interest to let the network devalue.
The idea is they will sell less of the Bitcoin they obtain taking selling pressure off the price.
This is what happened in the last few weeks as the price pumped up, once price hit 10k the selling began again by miners and price came down a bit.
ReallyMe
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@mastrhiggins, Yes, that's all true. But the miners only influence supply.
If demand falls off, the Bitcoin price will go down no matter what the miners do or want to do.
Nothing is given. We shall see...
They don't influence supply, supply set already in the code. 6.25BTC every 10 minutes soon.
Why would demand fall below where it is now? And I don't mean demand for speculation. I mean the demand for network use. It is a Network Value Asset at its core.
Demand remains the same, but supply is cut in half.... basic economics.
ReallyMe
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@mastrhiggins, There is something wrong with these statements. If supply was set and demand remained the same, the price of Bitcoin would always be a straight line between the halvings.