RiversAndMountains
Bán

Bitcoin - A Prophecy of the Future (Round II)

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
Creating a new post on request because the other one was way too long and it was a pain in the ass even for me to update.

So far this has been pretty accurate.

Right now there is a ton of enthusiasm calling for a pump back to old highs.

I have to emphasize that although that is absolutely possible, we are in a different place in the overall market cycle than we were on the dumps to $1800, $2900, and $5500 on the way up to the $19,000 all-time high.

We have been amidst heavy selling pressure for approaching 60 days and have dumped from $20,000 to $5,800

This is the second longest correction in BTC's history and the second biggest in magnitude.

People have developed very bad habits and a very smug sense of self-satisfaction amidst the perpetual bull run.

Longs at an all-time high. People have confused this situation with previous dumps on the bull run. Even long-term and very strong traders are confusing this situation.

The SEC and CFTC have also yet to deal with:

1. Unregulated exchanges
2. ICOs
3. Tether and Mount Finex

1 & 2 are issues Giancarlo and Clayton discussed explicitly during their testimony. Tether was a topic that they _all_ avoided, even while touching _every_ other hot topic in crypto.

That's because the CFTC still has open subpoenas with Finex and Tether.

I'm still of the opinion that a big move downwards that targets long term hodlers and miners is coming before Lightning Network launches.

Institutions want ALL of the underwriting coins of the world's new central banking system.

They will just catch you offguard when it comes, as you gather to pray to the $30,000 moon like you are about to at $9,300.

==
Stop the Organ Harvesting Persecution of Falun Gong Practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party

https://dafoh.org/petition-to-the-united-nations
Bình luận: Thank you guys for reading my crazy talk. I'd be thrilled to see the bull pump through $10,000 and continue to go up. It would certainly make my spot holdings worth more money, so I wouldn't complain.

On the other hand, I think that's not going to happen until real pain has come to long traders.

If you've benefited from any of my posts along the way, please read and sign the petition to end the organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners by the CCP at the end of my post.

If you'd be so kind to spread it around on Twitter and other social media, that would serve to help the situation greatly.
Bình luận: I had been looking for a while for a secondary tests of the lows, or even any pattern resembling Wyckoff accumulation, but it hasn't manifested. It occurred to me that this pattern does, however, look a lot like re-distribution during mark down.

snapshot


http://d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/market_analysis/wyckoff2/wyss-02-markdown.png

Right now in the current situation, I believe the market maker has evidenced he's short from 8800-8900 after yesterday's double top, and is long from 8100 after the bounce.

The market maker will move price into profit away from his position. Meaning, if he was short from 8800 and long from 8100, if we approach 8800+ again we are going over $9,000 because he has obviously scalped his short position at 8300 and has maintained his long position.

If the rejection around 8600-8700 continues, then we are for sure going to break the current bullish trend that's within the overall bearish trend and resume liquidating long traders.

Right now with the way it's playing out, the hot zone I'm looking for is $9,200-9,300 taking out all the stops over $9,000 before resuming major corrective cycle.
Bình luận: I've found when the morons come out to flame in this post it's at times when the market appears bullish and their self entitlement to free moon-money is triggered and their spectrum is flaring at an all-time high.

Then price drops and you don't hear from them again.

Bitcoin maximalists, hodlers, miners, and all the traders who have developed very dangerous habits are starting to get desperate.

Pleading and negotiating is starting internally.

Lower highs and bad volume = moon, right?
Bình luận: So, this one is really simple.

snapshot


I remember when we were back at $3,600ish after the $4,900-$2,900 China FUD correction and Goldbug1 referred to this pattern as "the most important trading pattern to learn".

He called it a fish hook.

Trendline break out, everyone comes and buys. Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy.

Moon moon moon moon moon is what everyone is thinking.

The difference between then and now?

Then, everyone was bearish and didn't turn bullish until $4,600+ on the retrace.

Now, everyone has been conditioned for automated moon mission.

BTCUSD longs are at an all time high. Highlighted area is from the 2.9k dump to around the 10th of October when it started to confirm re-bull run.

snapshot


Now, they were way up back then too, but what's telling is back then shorts were also at an all time high.

snapshot


Now they are nearly at an all time low.

Markets dump when _everyone_ has given up and bought.

Be careful.

However, the good news is, a bullish impulse over $9,500 with sustained strength means this bear meme is dead.

When Wall Street presents a $8,000 and $9,000 dip for you to buy for two weeks, do you really think they did it so you could back up the truck and get rich on the way to 50k by March?

Is it going to be so easy? It wasn't so easy during any other correction, whether major or minor in Bitcoin's history.

Greed and euphoria are fatal death traps.
Bình luận: Run back to $10,000 with a $700 drop in 3 minutes tells you that was the top.

snapshot


50 days of straight selling and a 75% retrace and people forgot all about it as they FOMO a pump and pump sponsored by 120MM in new Tether.

If it doesn't retrace back to $8,000 you can just buy the dip and get rich and it's the end of the downtrend.

If it does, prepare for pain.

Top longers are about to be tested.
Bình luận: A fractal to consider from Bitstamp daily.

The future is an echo of the past, as I heard someone smarter than me once say.

snapshot
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the worst trader in the world...
+2 Phản hồi
It's going to spike to 11k to wipe out the shorts and then drop like a knife to wipe out all the longs from january
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@RiversAndMountains I have a question that is constantly on my mind. I asked deep thought but it is computing too long to find the answer to the ultimate Bitcoin Showdown question: When? While deep thought continues computing the answer, would you have a guess, a view or some thoughts on the timing you could share with us? :-) That would be another interesting read for sure. Thanks.
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@RiversAndMountains , with your TA I didn't lose too much money, thank you !!!
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Cashening
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You said, "Run back to $10,000 with a $700 drop in 3 minutes tells you that was the top." How so??? Speak for yourself. Sure as hell didn't tell me that. How does it tell you that since you seem so confident?

Unlike you I'm using indicators to tell me "when" a bottom or top is possibly in play.

The best way to learn when a top or bottom is possibly in play is by using a much higher TF than the 60m, Sir. I would consider the 60m TF a "LOW" TF. Low TF's should be used for more precise entry and/or exit; while the higher TF's should be used to get an idea on the TREND .

Simply looking at candles in ANY Time Frame isn't good enough to determine the TREND, if bottom or top is reached and reversal may be in play, etc... If you want to have a better idea of the answer to those questions and more, you need indicators and know how to use those indicators well.

You said, "If it doesn't retrace back to $8,000, you can just buy the dip and get rich and it's the end of the downtrend. If it does, prepare for pain."

What would have been nice is if you could tell people MUCH SOONER the bottom was in and it's probably a good time to buy. I was telling people this at $7,000 . Which see:

snapshot


THE IMPORTANT THING IS I EXPLAINED "WHY" I believed the "ODDS WERE" that this was reversal by using a VISUAL INDICATOR rather than so-called "logic."
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ClementSand ProwdClown
@ProwdClown, you seem to much exited to be right, are you deleting you're account if we go lower than 7k ?
+1 Phản hồi
ProwdClown PRO ClementSand
@ClementSand,

Again, another imbecile who doesn't realize I'm simply pointing out to "new comers" there is a better way of going about trading than mere logic. However, you seem more content in your ignorance than to actually learn something.

Be my guest... remain ignorant.
+2 Phản hồi
ClementSand ProwdClown
@ProwdClown, I was just asking one simple question, I don't say someone is right
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ProwdClown PRO ClementSand
@ClementSand,

How would you react if someone asked you, "...are you deleting you're account if we go lower than 7k?"
+1 Phản hồi
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