Eball8
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BTC Day Trader's Thread (Pt. 44) - Road to 18k?

KRAKEN:XBTUSD   XBT / USD
Welcome to Eball's Day Trader's thread. Where I give wave analysis on price movements, while simultaneously not giving a damn about what fundamentals cause them. I react to price, and create projections based off of them. We make money here. Investors beware, this is probably not the post for you. We take it hour by hour in these posts.

Anyways, guys, I'm bullish again. But we will see how this plans out. Because it very quickly can go south. So i will not lose my guard. Very quickly do we have to adjust our analysis. If you've been following me, you know that it would have been either really good, or really bad for the price of Bitcoin             . And I focused on the really bad. But now I'm bullish again, but with caution. These next few days will tell us a lot. But I think we break all these resistances. I think it's time to go up now.

This thread will cover all short term price movements. Next update is coming in less than 30 minutes for our next set up. Enjoy :)
Bình luận:

Guys, I've been very very patient on confirmation, and I've been on the skeptical side for a while. AND, I STILL AM. BUT, you all should know that I said it would take a lot to change my mind. And my mind is being changed as we speak. So I feel comfortable with these setups. I think we have enough confirmation to go long here. And the bears? Well, you can still have fun too, I'll have plenty of short set ups (because shorting is fun to do). BUT, after a confirmation of an uptrend. I can guarantee that I will be going long, more than I go short. Just like the downtrend, I was going short, more than I was going long. Now its time to flip that. As the health of the market increases, I will look more into the smaller coins that get less attention. But I'm still fully focused on Bitcoin.
Bình luận:

Alright guys, now for the good stuff. The ABCDE formation is no guarantee. I think we stay bullish here, and I'm targeting entry right at the 10560-10600 range. We have a lot of support in that region. I think if we go any lower than there is the possibility of all EMAs crossing the 55 on the 15 minute frame, and that should not happen. Good luck! My buy orders are ready!
Bình luận: Just shorted. Update to come on what happened here with wave 1
Bình luận:

So, Bitcoin always seems to do the most advanced moves in elliot wave count. So I'm always going to assume that whatever it does, when it seems simple, is probably not it hahaha. I THINK this is it for wave 1? But honestly it could probably be something else. This is why I've kind of moved away from scalping with Bitcoin and more to larger time framed trades of more than 3 hours, but I still actively manage it.

I think this is where we go down, and thats why I opened a short at 10960 as soon as I got back home from my exam hahaha. Literally perfect timing. But guys, stay with me here. I believe we've confirmed an uptrend, and getting the best possible entry is of my concern. But getting it right will be hard. But once I'm in, I'm in, and I will likely not let go until we get to the bigger drops. Along the way I will just shave profit and go long after smaller drops instead of shorting.
Giao dịch bắt đầu: Just closed my short and went long. Seriously, I'm not quite sure what the wave count is. But I know the uptrend is confirmed. I'm just gonna let the market unfold. Be careful guys, I will continue to watch closely and wait to see how things play out.
Bình luận:

This next rally is going to be special. $12k is only target 1.
Bình luận:

Hope you guys are enjoying the profits! Just broke neckline resistance, and I expect this rally to continue strong. :D Have a good weekend guys!
Bình luận:

HOWWWWEVER. We must also consider this alternate count.
Bình luận:

Alternate count happened. Which makes me a little concerned. This and the next update will show you why. Our target, however, is STILL the 12k region. But I think we take a pretty big dip before we reach higher.
Bình luận:

See how important that last drop was? Remember when I said that it would take a lot to convince me we were good, and I was convinced, but still cautious. This is why I am cautious.

That last drop could validate this scenario. Where this could be the correct count. Before I had mentioned this as a possible count. This would make these current moves as a part of wave 5. And if we finish this formation of an ascending wedge, you better believe that I enter a short. So it's either we break 12k on this run, or we find ourselves in a tight position for the bulls.

See how quickly I can turn from a bull to a bear? This is why I tell investors to be wary of these posts. My opinion changes just as quickly as the market's. But the goal is to find the possible outcomes before they even happen. I shaved off profit around 11500 and added back to my position at 11320. I'm playing the cards here. Not trying to go short until we reach top line resistances, but I am just shaving profit as we go at critical points.

You may also note that I removed the neckline. I noticed we didn't rally like we should have. Why? Because it's possible the wave count was wrong, and we are actually in my initially assumed wave count of this still being on the initial 5 wave structure (orange). Head and shoulders on big reversals are formed between the BC and 123 corrective and impulsive waves. If 1 isnt complete, then we cannot verify the head and shoulders. Because we didnt get that rally, then its likely that our wave count was wrong.

On this post i might be 100% wrong of what I thought at the beginning. But just because we move on doesn't mean we abandon previous thoughts that still have some possibility. PLEASE be careful here. The bulls aren't out of the water just yet.
Bình luận: So what just happened here may have been a very good thing, or a very bad thing. We broke wave 1 territory. Meaning that this could be an extended 3rd wave. OR, it could be forming a wedge. OR it could be an ABC corrective pattern. I think the extended 3rd may be the most likely. But that 11200 support is something that should not have broken. I don't want to have to do this to myself. But I think I need to force myself to hold here and see what happens. But my indicators tell me that that probably isnt a good idea. If all EMAs cross on the 30 minute time frame. Then that will likely be my signal to exit. Thats the 8,13, and 21 EMAs crossing the 55.
Bình luận: So I expect a bounce here, but I still exited my long positions. I believe we go lower. Possibly in the 10800 area, possibly lower. I'm not shorting either. I'll just wake up and see what happens in the morning. But this is definitely breaking down. There are many available possibilities. Nothing I have said before is set in stone. But I think we are still on the uptrend. It's possible that the initial suggestion for a rally to 14k is still alive. So, in the short term (1-3 days), I'm bearish. But 1 week+, I am bullish.
Bình luận:

Bitcoin is going up, down, or sideways. LOL, literally no elliot wave trader I've seen knows the absolute proper count. There are literally at least 3-5 acceptable counts and possibilities, it's almost ambiguous. We will obviously have the answers in the next 2 weeks. But dude. What the hell. This is the best assumption I can make for now, with my previous updates as being the most likely? But ANYTHING can happen, its pretty comical to me by this point.
Bình luận:

Alright Bears. Game time in T-3 Hours.
Giao dịch bắt đầu: Alright guys, short is activated. It could very well go up to 11580. But there is always finding the difference between being patient and greedy. And I think if I try to wait and truly nail the top, its borderline greedy here. I'm pretty confident on the drop. But we all know how crazy Bitcoin is. I will keep my eye on it for the next couple hours and if it looks good, then I'll leave it open over night. I shorted at 11435. Goodluck!
Bình luận: I mean 11535 lol.
Bình luận: Oh wow. Looks like its going well already hahah what the heck. Literally as I was writing it dropped. Keep open eyes for a retest.
Bình luận:

Looks like a bullish pennant where we go higher and finish with something like this before we go down?
Bình luận: Just waiting for Bitcoin to drop. What are you guys up to?
Bình luận:

Took long enough.. Geez.

Alright, here's out next set ups once this baby fall finishes.
Bình luận: Took profit on first drop. Laddering here to reduce market risk. Usually I would stay and try to flip the order to go long. But I really just don't feel like it. I feel like watching a movie. I'm going to wait for the next opportunity to short again.
Bình luận:

That dropped farther than I expected. Which now makes even more possibilities LOL. I HATE Bitcoin. Here are some possibilities that we could see.
Bình luận:

So we hit support zone, and we should bounce up soon. But based on what we've seen. Does it make my very original thought more likely now? We are certainly not on wave 3 yet, so what the hell could it be?

The only thing that I'm mad at is I closed my short position very early, cause I had NOOOO idea this was coming. The thing, is that I never went long. But we surely should see a bounce soon. I'll analyze closely whats going on to see if there are any more decent setups.
Bình luận:

One more update after this. I think we fall again to the low 9400s or maybe even lower. But I'm not sure if this IS the correct count. If this isn't an ABC, and its actually a 123, then the bulls are surely F'D!!!

I will show a picture of what that may look like.
Bình luận:

Bulls better hope this isn't the right count...
Bình luận:

So here is wave 4. Either possibility can happen before the next drop. But if we fall now, then we'll likely go pretty low, and I may enter a short. But if we raise higher, we could go up to 10k and just double bottom around the 9400 range again.
Bình luận:

Here is the next short-setup. We are actually going to stay pretty conservative/bullish in that we don't break this this $9400 threshold that has held strong. It is also the 618 extension from wave 3.
Bình luận:

Bada boom. So after we reach this next target, I'm definitely going long. That will be a trade that I leave open through the night to then see how its moving around. Possibly entering the long between 9.4-9.5k, with laddered buys.
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu: Laddering buys for the long position play mentioned earlier
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu: long position Target is reached. Getting nervous on how long this run will last.
Bình luận:
If you take this wave count option, and correlate it to the volume, this scenario definitely makes sense. Because I feel like I'd be entering a short late here, I'm going to let this play out more. I'm not fulling confident on WHEN we might fall.
Bình luận:

Yellow is most likely, green is second most likely, and the orange is least likely.
Bình luận: well guys, guess what. I just missed that short cause I fell asleep. Long target play is coming soon. But bulls, that drop was NOT a good thing. Very very very bad.
Bình luận:

So now, my main count is the ABC scenario where we hit $7k or lower. Here is the next play that I have available. Very sure we get another drop here to retest $9k, so there really is no rush to enter. But our target will sit around $10-10.25k as a target. A very nice 13% return. After that, be very very weary. I'm looking to bring out my gunners for a big shorting opportunity. So much bearishness in the air, everything is making sense again. BUT, if our rally up is pretty bullish, and we surpass that 10.25k level with strength, then I may not short. But guys, these are 5 bearish waves down. Unless I see something that changes the trend, and gives an alternate count, then I'm very bearish. Good luck!
Bình luận:

The 10 minute MACD and signal are giving perfect representation of this final wave down. GET READY TO BUY SOME ALTS!!!
I feel you bro, I missed that short too! It was exactly when I was taking a shower to go to work :'(
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Eball8 davidvillarreal.sa
@davidvillarreal.sa, haha such a pain in the ass!
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Humm mm I like both scenarios... up and down and the up directly.... keep updating you are the best on this! Good luck
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Waiting since 11400 lol..... really want to see 9300 again... to re enter but 11100 is OK....
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Eball8 RobertoMartinNavarro
@RobertoMartinNavarro, hahaha, I think there is a possibility of seeing 9300 again. But we'll have to wait and see!
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@Eball8, will be really great!!! 9700 OK too
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@Eball8, humm crystal ball sir??? Lol. Today we have reached... but I had buyer at 10300 . Not good... waiting to short now
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Love it when a trader corrects his mistake. I have often crossed upon traders who believe their own predictions and don't adapt. A lot of "experts" seem to be banking on a rally. I am of bullish sentiment, but not a massive spike. But that is the beauty of crypto. No grand scheme plans can be made.

Cheers, and keep it up.

Wise trading.
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Eball8 ChrisSchwarz
@ChrisSchwarz, thank you! I've learned from most recent experiences that holding on to what you believe is going to happen will surely screw you over what is actually happening. Best of luck to you!
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I thought that last drop was healthy and bullish... the more the candle slaps against the resistance, the more the resistance weakens.
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