Anyways, guys, I'm again. But we will see how this plans out. Because it very quickly can go south. So i will not lose my guard. Very quickly do we have to adjust our analysis. If you've been following me, you know that it would have been either really good, or really bad for the price of Bitcoin . And I focused on the really bad. But now I'm again, but with caution. These next few days will tell us a lot. But I think we break all these resistances. I think it's time to go up now.
This thread will cover all short term price movements. Next update is coming in less than 30 minutes for our next set up. Enjoy :)
Guys, I've been very very patient on confirmation, and I've been on the skeptical side for a while. AND, I STILL AM. BUT, you all should know that I said it would take a lot to change my mind. And my mind is being changed as we speak. So I feel comfortable with these setups. I think we have enough confirmation to go long here. And the bears? Well, you can still have fun too, I'll have plenty of short set ups (because shorting is fun to do). BUT, after a confirmation of an uptrend. I can guarantee that I will be going long, more than I go short. Just like the downtrend, I was going short, more than I was going long. Now its time to flip that. As the health of the market increases, I will look more into the smaller coins that get less attention. But I'm still fully focused on Bitcoin.
Alright guys, now for the good stuff. The ABCDE formation is no guarantee. I think we stay bullish here, and I'm targeting entry right at the 10560-10600 range. We have a lot of support in that region. I think if we go any lower than there is the possibility of all EMAs crossing the 55 on the 15 minute frame, and that should not happen. Good luck! My buy orders are ready!
So, Bitcoin always seems to do the most advanced moves in elliot wave count. So I'm always going to assume that whatever it does, when it seems simple, is probably not it hahaha. I THINK this is it for wave 1? But honestly it could probably be something else. This is why I've kind of moved away from scalping with Bitcoin and more to larger time framed trades of more than 3 hours, but I still actively manage it.
I think this is where we go down, and thats why I opened a short at 10960 as soon as I got back home from my exam hahaha. Literally perfect timing. But guys, stay with me here. I believe we've confirmed an uptrend, and getting the best possible entry is of my concern. But getting it right will be hard. But once I'm in, I'm in, and I will likely not let go until we get to the bigger drops. Along the way I will just shave profit and go long after smaller drops instead of shorting.
This next rally is going to be special. $12k is only target 1.
Hope you guys are enjoying the profits! Just broke neckline resistance, and I expect this rally to continue strong. :D Have a good weekend guys!
HOWWWWEVER. We must also consider this alternate count.
Alternate count happened. Which makes me a little concerned. This and the next update will show you why. Our target, however, is STILL the 12k region. But I think we take a pretty big dip before we reach higher.
See how important that last drop was? Remember when I said that it would take a lot to convince me we were good, and I was convinced, but still cautious. This is why I am cautious.
That last drop could validate this scenario. Where this could be the correct count. Before I had mentioned this as a possible count. This would make these current moves as a part of wave 5. And if we finish this formation of an ascending wedge, you better believe that I enter a short. So it's either we break 12k on this run, or we find ourselves in a tight position for the bulls.
See how quickly I can turn from a bull to a bear? This is why I tell investors to be wary of these posts. My opinion changes just as quickly as the market's. But the goal is to find the possible outcomes before they even happen. I shaved off profit around 11500 and added back to my position at 11320. I'm playing the cards here. Not trying to go short until we reach top line resistances, but I am just shaving profit as we go at critical points.
You may also note that I removed the neckline. I noticed we didn't rally like we should have. Why? Because it's possible the wave count was wrong, and we are actually in my initially assumed wave count of this still being on the initial 5 wave structure (orange). Head and shoulders on big reversals are formed between the BC and 123 corrective and impulsive waves. If 1 isnt complete, then we cannot verify the head and shoulders. Because we didnt get that rally, then its likely that our wave count was wrong.
On this post i might be 100% wrong of what I thought at the beginning. But just because we move on doesn't mean we abandon previous thoughts that still have some possibility. PLEASE be careful here. The bulls aren't out of the water just yet.
Bitcoin is going up, down, or sideways. LOL, literally no elliot wave trader I've seen knows the absolute proper count. There are literally at least 3-5 acceptable counts and possibilities, it's almost ambiguous. We will obviously have the answers in the next 2 weeks. But dude. What the hell. This is the best assumption I can make for now, with my previous updates as being the most likely? But ANYTHING can happen, its pretty comical to me by this point.
Alright Bears. Game time in T-3 Hours.
Looks like a bullish pennant where we go higher and finish with something like this before we go down?
Took long enough.. Geez.
Alright, here's out next set ups once this baby fall finishes.
That dropped farther than I expected. Which now makes even more possibilities LOL. I HATE Bitcoin. Here are some possibilities that we could see.
So we hit support zone, and we should bounce up soon. But based on what we've seen. Does it make my very original thought more likely now? We are certainly not on wave 3 yet, so what the hell could it be?
The only thing that I'm mad at is I closed my short position very early, cause I had NOOOO idea this was coming. The thing, is that I never went long. But we surely should see a bounce soon. I'll analyze closely whats going on to see if there are any more decent setups.
One more update after this. I think we fall again to the low 9400s or maybe even lower. But I'm not sure if this IS the correct count. If this isn't an ABC, and its actually a 123, then the bulls are surely F'D!!!
I will show a picture of what that may look like.
Bulls better hope this isn't the right count...
So here is wave 4. Either possibility can happen before the next drop. But if we fall now, then we'll likely go pretty low, and I may enter a short. But if we raise higher, we could go up to 10k and just double bottom around the 9400 range again.
Here is the next short-setup. We are actually going to stay pretty conservative/bullish in that we don't break this this $9400 threshold that has held strong. It is also the 618 extension from wave 3.
Bada boom. So after we reach this next target, I'm definitely going long. That will be a trade that I leave open through the night to then see how its moving around. Possibly entering the long between 9.4-9.5k, with laddered buys.
If you take this wave count option, and correlate it to the volume, this scenario definitely makes sense. Because I feel like I'd be entering a short late here, I'm going to let this play out more. I'm not fulling confident on WHEN we might fall.
Yellow is most likely, green is second most likely, and the orange is least likely.
So now, my main count is the ABC scenario where we hit $7k or lower. Here is the next play that I have available. Very sure we get another drop here to retest $9k, so there really is no rush to enter. But our target will sit around $10-10.25k as a target. A very nice 13% return. After that, be very very weary. I'm looking to bring out my gunners for a big shorting opportunity. So much bearishness in the air, everything is making sense again. BUT, if our rally up is pretty bullish, and we surpass that 10.25k level with strength, then I may not short. But guys, these are 5 bearish waves down. Unless I see something that changes the trend, and gives an alternate count, then I'm very bearish. Good luck!
The 10 minute MACD and signal are giving perfect representation of this final wave down. GET READY TO BUY SOME ALTS!!!
Cheers, and keep it up.