I got stopped out of my last attempt to buy bitcoin last week on the potential reversal and never really got the risk/reward to short from $9500. So I just watched the reversal only doing some small scalps.
In order to get in long, other than scalps, I wanted to see the market make a swing low on at least an hourly chart. We got that yesterday so the next step was waiting for a pullback, which came and ended up hitting multiple fib levels depending on which wave you draw.
I bought with a tight stop on last nights pullback and waited. We reversed nicely and the action confirmed at least a short term upswing but you can see we have to get past the next level of resistance at $8500
Double tops don't tend to hold, so that fact that we retested $8500 is a bullish sign. Now my goal is to buy heavy long on the current dip. We could drop down to $8k but in such a bullish move, its possible we don't. So far in this reversal, most of the drops have all been .23, .382 and .50 fibs even on shorter waves.
Interesting Note: On this chart, when we draw the fib lines from the $13k drop to the lower, its amazing how the fibs mark exact points of support and resistance. This will serve as a nice map to help us keep an eye on the big picture.
Bullish Case: What I want to see:
Consolidating between $8k and $8500 will give us a chance to add. I'd like to see bull flag form or possibly an ascending triangle on a smaller time frame. Then break up past $8600 and that big inverted head and shoulders comes in play and we go to the next Fib line around $9500. That would be the area of the next battle ground, allow us to take some profits while still holding long and re-adding.
Bearish Case: What I don't want to see:
Trading is just probabilities. In my opinion the probability is now higher that we go up. There is a lot of room to the upside. But I can be wrong, so I don't feel like riding down to $5000 or lower. I start scaling out under $8k and end up with a smaller position. At $7600, I get out and just wait. It could still reverse from there, but probabilities become lower if critical levels are breached. If that happens, I just get out and watch like last time.
Worse case scenario, you lose 2, 3, 5 or even 10% getting stopped out a few times. I don't mind taking a few shots to go long, especially after the big down move and some shift in sentiment from the SEC/CFTC meeting. With smaller risk, the reward is $9500, $11000 then $13000 targets.
In order to get in long, other than scalps, I wanted to see the market make a swing low on at least an hourly chart. We got that yesterday so the next step was waiting for a pullback, which came and ended up hitting multiple fib levels depending on which wave you draw.
I bought with a tight stop on last nights pullback and waited. We reversed nicely and the action confirmed at least a short term upswing but you can see we have to get past the next level of resistance at $8500
Double tops don't tend to hold, so that fact that we retested $8500 is a bullish sign. Now my goal is to buy heavy long on the current dip. We could drop down to $8k but in such a bullish move, its possible we don't. So far in this reversal, most of the drops have all been .23, .382 and .50 fibs even on shorter waves.
Interesting Note: On this chart, when we draw the fib lines from the $13k drop to the lower, its amazing how the fibs mark exact points of support and resistance. This will serve as a nice map to help us keep an eye on the big picture.
Bullish Case: What I want to see:
Consolidating between $8k and $8500 will give us a chance to add. I'd like to see bull flag form or possibly an ascending triangle on a smaller time frame. Then break up past $8600 and that big inverted head and shoulders comes in play and we go to the next Fib line around $9500. That would be the area of the next battle ground, allow us to take some profits while still holding long and re-adding.
Bearish Case: What I don't want to see:
Trading is just probabilities. In my opinion the probability is now higher that we go up. There is a lot of room to the upside. But I can be wrong, so I don't feel like riding down to $5000 or lower. I start scaling out under $8k and end up with a smaller position. At $7600, I get out and just wait. It could still reverse from there, but probabilities become lower if critical levels are breached. If that happens, I just get out and watch like last time.
Worse case scenario, you lose 2, 3, 5 or even 10% getting stopped out a few times. I don't mind taking a few shots to go long, especially after the big down move and some shift in sentiment from the SEC/CFTC meeting. With smaller risk, the reward is $9500, $11000 then $13000 targets.
Bình luận:
Bitcoin went up to $9100 last night. Things looked good but we've met with aggressive selling back under the $8500 mark. This could just be a stop run pullback but its a bit stronger to the downside than I would have expected.
Bullish Case:
We bounce above $8000 and end the day over $8500. It would be a neutral daily candle and likely lead to $9500.
Bearish Case:
We just fall below $8500 stay here all day and form a weak bear flag. A daily close today under $8500 isn't ideal. Under $8300 is bad. Around $8k or under closing near lows of the day would be very bearish.
Usually on a reversal you don't get 2 chances to get in on the low and we had a test of $7500 already, which is good enough to form. We could potentially test it again which would be the 50% pullback of this big move, but if that doesn't hold, then look for lower lows, probably $4k-$5k range.
I took partial profits last night around $8900 because it was late at night I figured we'd pull back. But so far we've drop $800 in less than 12 hours. That generally not a bullish sign. I'll take a shot at a long here because there is some support. If we get weak movement upwards, I will get out and wait to see what happens. I may also clear out long and start a short position.
In a bullish market, I give trades more time. But when the market is bearish and aggressive and still on a daily bear, I have to be cautious. More trades, more stops, add and reduce positions. The market has to prove to me that it wants to back into an upward trend.
Bullish Case:
We bounce above $8000 and end the day over $8500. It would be a neutral daily candle and likely lead to $9500.
Bearish Case:
We just fall below $8500 stay here all day and form a weak bear flag. A daily close today under $8500 isn't ideal. Under $8300 is bad. Around $8k or under closing near lows of the day would be very bearish.
Usually on a reversal you don't get 2 chances to get in on the low and we had a test of $7500 already, which is good enough to form. We could potentially test it again which would be the 50% pullback of this big move, but if that doesn't hold, then look for lower lows, probably $4k-$5k range.
I took partial profits last night around $8900 because it was late at night I figured we'd pull back. But so far we've drop $800 in less than 12 hours. That generally not a bullish sign. I'll take a shot at a long here because there is some support. If we get weak movement upwards, I will get out and wait to see what happens. I may also clear out long and start a short position.
In a bullish market, I give trades more time. But when the market is bearish and aggressive and still on a daily bear, I have to be cautious. More trades, more stops, add and reduce positions. The market has to prove to me that it wants to back into an upward trend.
Bình luận:
In a neutral status right now.
1. We got the bullish movement at close, which really helped print a neutral daily candle yesterday.
2. We then moved down and retraced to the .382 fib at $7800
So now we are going to find out if bitcoin is ready to make its way up, break more recent downtrend line or see if it gets halted at that line and between the 50 and 618 fibs. This would from a head and shoulders.
We could stop here at the 38% retrace of the down move. From this point, it doesn't matter where bitcoin turns. If it goes down under $7800, then the probability a going to lower lows greatly increases
We need to see today totally reverse the price action from yesterday. Get past $8600, close in that area in 12 hours. Get rejected at the fibs and close below $8k.
Because we were down most of the day, I put 2 orders at $7600 and $7800 area last night and 1 got filled. I'll be closing that at $8400 and just watching. I want to be long, but price action says that trend line and fibs has a chance to stop this move today, so shorting around $8500 is an option with a tight stop behind the fibs and trend line.
In a neutral status right now.
1. We got the bullish movement at close, which really helped print a neutral daily candle yesterday.
2. We then moved down and retraced to the .382 fib at $7800
So now we are going to find out if bitcoin is ready to make its way up, break more recent downtrend line or see if it gets halted at that line and between the 50 and 618 fibs. This would from a head and shoulders.
We could stop here at the 38% retrace of the down move. From this point, it doesn't matter where bitcoin turns. If it goes down under $7800, then the probability a going to lower lows greatly increases
We need to see today totally reverse the price action from yesterday. Get past $8600, close in that area in 12 hours. Get rejected at the fibs and close below $8k.
Because we were down most of the day, I put 2 orders at $7600 and $7800 area last night and 1 got filled. I'll be closing that at $8400 and just watching. I want to be long, but price action says that trend line and fibs has a chance to stop this move today, so shorting around $8500 is an option with a tight stop behind the fibs and trend line.
Bình luận:
Bears vs. Bulls. We have a big inverse head and shoulder forming but a smaller head and shoulders on a smaller time frame. Running into a trend line. This will be an epic battle. I think the resolution of the trend is determined tonight.
Keep in mind, the larger trend is down. The last 5 sundays, we started moving down and ended up with some kind of FUD article Monday that led to some big down days. So be prepared for downside.
But trends end, so a break up of the trendline and bullish news tomorrow and it we could see a big upward movement. Let's see happens.
Bears vs. Bulls. We have a big inverse head and shoulder forming but a smaller head and shoulders on a smaller time frame. Running into a trend line. This will be an epic battle. I think the resolution of the trend is determined tonight.
Keep in mind, the larger trend is down. The last 5 sundays, we started moving down and ended up with some kind of FUD article Monday that led to some big down days. So be prepared for downside.
But trends end, so a break up of the trendline and bullish news tomorrow and it we could see a big upward movement. Let's see happens.
On the bullish side stay above $8k but I'd like to see us visit that $8500 and above. The more times we can get up there, the more likely we but and can have an impulsive run to $9500.
To keep it simple, I add if we get above the green line, I'm out and open a small short if we fall below that yellow line