So, first off all: this post does say LONG.. HOWEVER, I want to make sure you all see that in the TITLE I say 8k first. Secondly, this is like the 20th post on Bitcoin in the last 10 days hahahaha. But when my posts get so long I feel the need to upload a new one. I constantly like to notify you guys on what I think and how I feel about the market at a certain point in time. My mind changes just as quickly as the market's, and that's because I just react to data as it comes in. I don't have a crystal ball. I'm a day trader at heart, and our long-term forecasts probably aren't as good as the best swing traders. I ALSO WANT TO SAY: This is an ALTERNATE count to my 7k post. 7k is STILL an option. But this may honestly be my primary option for now.
ANYWAYS:
Bulls: Don't freak out. The market will rebound, and I think sooner than my marked 7k target on the previous post.
Bears: You all can still make a crap load of return on this next drop, but don't stay bearish for forever!
PLEASE READ THIS:
I know this post says that it can END at 8k, BUT there is a chance that we break it and drop lower, just simply because this wave count could be wrong. Why could it be wrong? Well lets look at wave 2. It very nearly retraces to the full height of wave 1. So the count for the uptrend still confuses me on whether or not that was a 1, or an X for a failed breakout... This kind of matters more for what happens AFTER the breakout, rather than BEFORE. Because getting the correct wave count from then on is the most important part. But what I can guarantee you all is that if we break the 1 month high of 11.7k then we are surely going UP. April WILL be a good month, i can say that with my mind and my heart lol.
ANALYZATION:
So, like I said i'm not entirely sure on the wave count. But lets look at our support lines here. With that most recent drop, I have no doubt that we will go lower, and I will show that in my next few updates. But look at the blue support and resistance lines of the past month. Notice the descending wedge? And check out the white resistance line that now serves as support. On the daily chart it makes much more sense. But we have a hell of a lot of support lines to break thru to get to 7k. Daily Support line Descending wedge support .618 retrace region
This is honestly enough to make me very bullish in 1 weeks time. Descending wedges always pop up if counted correctly. So the biggest thing here in the count is that is it a 12345, or an ABCDE? If its a 12345 going down into the wedge, then that makes it a part of the Z of an WXYXZ correction. BUT, if its an ABCDE, then it could be a part of wave 2. It just would seem to be not proportional in a wave 2 correction to the length of wave 1. The world may never know.
Many updates as usually to come as soon as i upload this.
Bình luận
⋅
Here is an alternate count. The 1 hr chart is showing the possibility of a lift. So it's almost like we need to go down now, or the bears could be in short-term trouble. This is very hard to analyze in how far we bounce or drop. The count isn't really clear, and I still haven't entered a short. I missed my chance by just being too patience. So I'm not quite sure where to go from here.
Bình luận
⋅
We just bounced off of channel support with a very strong channel. It's possible that we could be taking the route of the alternate count. But it's hard to tell right now. A bullish scenario would be that we bounce up to 10k. But if we break through the previous low, we can continue this down trend.
Bình luận
⋅
So here are the two scenarios. Because i know longer consider this the B wave, we could finish this bear flag with 5 touches in an ABCDE format. If we do, that's another sure short. BUT, if we break this channel support, then we could go lower from here. Either way, we end up at 8k or lower.
Bình luận
⋅
OR
If we break the blue line guys, (7,900-8,000). You should be very concerned
Bình luận
⋅
Shorter time frame. Two possible setups. I don't think the ABCDE into the descending triangle is likely, but it still an option. If we break the blue resistance it's just a bull trap. Target is still DOWN.
Bình luận
⋅
Bears are holding on for dear life. It's getting less and less likely we break up, but it's still definitely possible. If we break up, I'd expect a really to between $9500-9600
Bình luận
⋅
Sorry guys, I think there was an error there was an error with the count. B wave cannot have 5 waves. So if we do break out, then maybe this is it?
This next picture is the bearish count with a break down.
Bình luận
⋅
I'm gonna have to call this the top here. With having waves down, we can't assume that that was the B wave. The only thing that could possibly give us a high past the green line is an WXY correction. And with this Ascending wedge that has formed, that is not likely. I think the Bulls can mess around here for hours and try to hold the price up, but getting extension past $9400 would be a tough task. Down we go.
Bình luận
⋅
I know my updates have been bearish in the short-term.
But daily chart is looking BEAUTIFUL *Heart Eyes* I can full heartedly say that if we manage to sustain this support zone and break this neckline, it will be SMOOTH sailing for BTC. If you go long around the 8k region, you have a chance of a 150% return in 2-3 months
Bình luận
⋅
Everything is going according to plan so far! So I expect Bitcoin to screw it all up in a moment here..
If we break that yellow zone. We could head up from anywhere to $9100-$9500.. So don't lose your guard on this downtrend.
Bình luận
⋅
Uh oh.. This doesn't look good for the bulls so far D: .. Update coming soon.
Bình luận
⋅
Here is an alternate count where we end up at 7.5k.. Otherwise, we stop at 8k.
Bình luận
⋅
Indicators really want this to go down. We're in a bearish pennant, and everything gave me the signal to open a few shorts for some scalping positions between 8340-8290. But I think we make a nice bounce to 8500-8600 from a low of 8000. Here's the short-term play for you all.
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
⋅
Guys I opened up my long very very very prematurely at $8060 because It was just so oversold on the 1 minute chart. I'm seeing great buy walls. We should still get a dead cat bounce, and I expect that to be the best entry point, but I couldn't resist.
Bình luận
⋅
So remember, this long position is only for the short term. Here's my count.. Following the alternate one. And I think we eventually extend to $7600. Here is a long and a short play for you all. But wait for the development of the waves before you just go in blindly. Look at what the white words say. We can break through these supports momentarily, but it's important that we really get rejected hard. If we close below that yellow zone, you better shout your best prayer to the Heavens...
I entered this one early because of what I said before, AND I'm about to go to the golf range and I don't give a damn about what happens to Bitcoin while I'm golfing. Anyways, be cautious, use stop losses, and DONT FOMO. DONT DO WHAT I DID and not give a shit about the very bottom (unless you are about to go golf :D).
Bình luận
⋅
Sorry, the long position in the middle kind of blocked it. Also, if we fall through 8k. Expect a support zone right at 7k.
Bình luận
⋅
SHIT. I mean 7.9k!!! Sorry All I'm thinking about is golfing right now. That's my 3rd addiction behind trading and football.
Bình luận
⋅
Sorry I wasn't there to notify you all of that ascending wedge that formed on that short uptrend. But we just got our first sign of a bullish divergence on the 1 hour chart. I expect use to raise around the 40 RSI range and get rejected to a lower low with a bullish divergence on the RSI.
Because we dropped another $200, then our target has now fallen $200. I'm expecting rejection in the high $8300-$8400 range now. I really hope that we get some support in the $7500 range, or we can fear a nasty sell of with our 5th wave. This next 5th wave can do whatever it pleases. It can be a 1 to 1 extension of wave 1. It can be a 1 to 1 extension of wave 3. It can be truncated. Or it can be extended itself. I'm hoping for a bit of a truncated 5th here. But we'll see.
Bình luận
⋅
Bình luận
⋅
Alright, nearing the end of the long position, get ready to short!
Bình luận
⋅
Here it is guys. We should safely hit into the $7300 range before we go up.
Bình luận
⋅
We keep going higher.. I don't mind, just adding to my short!
Bình luận
⋅
$7300 is still the target, but this may happen before that :). Watch closely to supports.
Bình luận
⋅
could be the yellow wave count, could be the white. But the highest we go POSSIBLY is $8800. If we do keep rising, then I'd guess we would stop right there at the .328 yellow region. I've already opened a short because I don't mind if we extend a bit higher. Didn't really try to nail the top here.
Bình luận
⋅
oh guys sorry! I forgot to mention that bear flag there.. See those two parrallel lines with the ABCDE? bear flag. IF, it escapes that, then the yellow ABC is the correct count.
Bình luận
⋅
30 minute chart is showing a grave stone doji. Reversal signal and probably one of my favorite candles.
Bình luận
⋅
Everything looking good for the next short setup!
Bình luận
⋅
Bear flag here. Should go down to 8k and then bounce to $8,250 before we fall again.
Bình luận
⋅
The drop didn't have enough force behind it. We can rise as high as 8400 now.
Bình luận
⋅
We rose to $8400, and it seems there are two possible counts right now.
But guys, I'm going to have to go with this yellow count for now. It seems like the most realistic based on indicators and wave count. I don't think there's any other way to count it. BUT, what could invalidate that count? If we cross the yellow line! Crossing the yellow line will likely prove the wave count to be wrong, and we would have to consider the more bearish count to be the most likely count.
But I think we fail to reach the 7.2k target. I'm going to have to go with 7.7k for now UNTIL PROVEN WRONG. If that's the case, then we're going to go on a crazy bull rally to our 18k target set last month.
Bình luận
⋅
Here's what I'm hoping for for wave 3. If we get something like this. Then I'll start to turn more and more bullish as we go.
Bình luận
⋅
Boom. Here's the 10 min MACD
Bình luận
⋅
Wait wtf... Did I post the MACD on somthing else??
Bình luận
⋅
If this support holds... We go long very very soon.
Bình luận
⋅
Bình luận
⋅
Here's the bounce guys! Hopefully you all have enjoyed my thread. This should be the start of the uptrend! If we break through $8,200 then It should definitely be confirmed!
Bình luận
⋅
I still haven't entered a long here. These credentials on here will make me do so.
If we get a higher low without retracing below the red line, and BREAK above this next peak, I will enter a long position. That is buying on confirmation.
Bình luận
⋅
Here are two plays BOTH based on confirmation! Again, I am still not in a trade yet, But I am bullish
Bình luận
⋅
Alternate count that markoshust used. It seems that we are in an ending 5 wave and we trying to build strong support and add stability for indicators to reset. This needs an uptrend, and it doesn't make sense in terms of elliot wave for it to go lower. This is a very great RR setup, with a stop loss just below 7500. Probability is relatively high as well, but there still is a chance for failure. We keep repeatedly testing this support, so I'm not sure how long it can continue to take the pounding. Targeting the 55 EMA and previous swing high. I'm already in the trade. Good luck! Stick to the stop loss. A 1.2% loss is worth this risk in my opinion.
Bình luận
⋅
HAHAHAHA holy shit, stop loss was triggered FAST. No idea what the count is now. I'm done with updates until the market cools down.
Bình luận
⋅
Nevermind. I figured it out.
Bình luận
⋅
Shoulda said I THOUGHT i figured it out lol... F elliot wave for now. Here's what I'm thinking and WHY I've been bullish recently. We need it to break these resistances
Bình luận
⋅
Sorry I haven't been around much. I tried posting a new idea, but indicators are showing incredibly bearishness working against this uptrend. I expect a pretty big fall, or AT LEAST a minor correction to the downside to around 8k. Please keep eyes open and properly read indicators
@Eball8 been looking up to you for a while now, learning so much from your charts. thank you so much for all of your work :) you are doing a big service to all of us new traders out there.
i tried to do a very high-level view of Bitcoin. i have a theory that we are in a final 5th wave of correction, and it has yet to be completed. please let me know your opinion and thoughts on this, as you are way more versed in elliott waves than i am. i'm counting 5 subwaves on every single wave, so this is............. scary. would love your honest feedback. i have Bitcoin going down to at least 6k (to double bottom, which would be extremely bullish to me), but if that level fails i see the possibility of going under 5k.
Elijah_Trading
⋅
@markoshust, Thank You! And yes, It is possible! I have something a little different in terms of wave count. This could be an ABCDE count instead of a 12345. A 12345 count implies that there will be an even longer continuation that could stretch several months to 2 years. It is a scary scenario, and I'm not very bullish at the moment.
may_be_go
⋅
What do you think about 3k? We are now for the second time under 200 daily SMA and on the weekly logarithmic chart we can close below the trend line.
Elijah_Trading
⋅
@may_be_go, yeah it doesn't look good in that perspective, especially if the EMAs begin to fan out. If that we're to happen then i'd be scared for the future of the market. 5k is my decision maker. If we drop below that all I'll be doing is shorting for a while with no allocation in the market.
may_be_go
⋅
Thx 4 your great work! New era of your chart after 6.9k? My scroll has already broken :D
Elijah_Trading
⋅
@may_be_go, Yes I can't wait to make a new post hahaha
webmi
⋅
Man,... you are so wrong. You can not look at 15 min-1h chars in bear market for long term predictions
Elijah_Trading
⋅
@webmi, hahaha, you think that's all I've been looking at?? Just because I don't post those higher time frame charts doesn't mean I'm not looking at them. Look at indicators from any time frame over 3 hours and tell me that Bitcoin is almost ready for a bull run. In the short term, I've yet to go long. Just because I'm bullish, doesn't mean it can't go down a little bit lower. Let me some of your charts, curious about your opinion.
markoshust
⋅
I don't think we are done correcting.... one more wave down
Elijah_Trading
⋅
@markoshust, look at your wave 3 count. Can you properly count 5 waves within that on a smaller time frame?
i tried to do a very high-level view of Bitcoin. i have a theory that we are in a final 5th wave of correction, and it has yet to be completed. please let me know your opinion and thoughts on this, as you are way more versed in elliott waves than i am. i'm counting 5 subwaves on every single wave, so this is............. scary. would love your honest feedback. i have Bitcoin going down to at least 6k (to double bottom, which would be extremely bullish to me), but if that level fails i see the possibility of going under 5k.