Breaking aboe $8750 would invalidate my micro count on BTCUSD that currently shows wave 3 of 5 down. As it stands I still suspect that we are in wave 4 need a 5th down to complete this bottom. I see too many similarities with the last wedge as well, both in count and in technicals. Short near-term, bullish after a bottom is found.
there are a lot of striking similarities between this and last wedge, now.
Manifested
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@renkcub, They have their small variances, but overall they are very very similar
Johnnysharp
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@Manifested, by the way i totally agree with your analysis and came to similar conclusion. Longer term though, I wonder if a retest of 7xxx indicates so much weakness there is little chance for much future bounce (breaking over 9-10k again). I would feel more confident about a nice "B" wave up (or ATH) from the btc double top if we performed better here (broke above 8700 and didnt do a double "panic" wave down, like in Feb). seems to indicate a lot of weakness otherwise. thoughts?
Johnnysharp
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@Manifested I ask this in part because of your title... "save the bulls"
Manifested
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@renkcub, You may be right, it definitely seems that the market is supply dominant right now. I think the next sizable bounce will be the straw that breaks the bulls back, so to speak. Many people were shaken out of the market on the last drop to $5900, and even more so will be on this next one. This is the way of markdown distribution. Once there are no more retail buyers left and everyone has forgotten about bitcoin and crypto is when the institutional investors can start accumulating again at dirt cheap prices.
Johnnysharp
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@Manifested, Right. you kinda touched on this here. twitter.com/Bit_roller/status/968447362829086720. If we are in the left fractal, it means we are due for lower lows (bottom at 5-6k?) before a bounce back to where we were last week, possibly around summer / mid july, before a long-term bear market. If we bounce higher, such as now (or maybe even 7300 holds...) - perhaps a more bullish scenario is possible. Nothing is certain - just seems to be hints from the supply vs demand. Hard to know where to "draw the line" long term.
Manifested
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@renkcub, Exactly. Nothing is certain, and even though we can draw comparisons to past price history, there are a ton of variables that can shake things up, such as futures markets coming about recently. I do thing markets move based off the fundamentals of market psychology, which largely does not change, but there are a lot of influencing factors that nudge it one way or another. The only thing we can control as traders is our risk management.